AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1130 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 ...CHANGE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS AFTERNOON... RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT OVER SRN PART OF LOWER MI WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AIR IS QUITE DRY BELOW 15000 FT AND MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LYRD AC AND THICK CS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD THINNING... THERE IS SO MUCH OUT THERE THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. SO WILL FCST CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SINCE CLOUDS ARE MID AND HIGH TYPE. WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMP FCST MOSTLY AS IS SINCE TEMPS ONLY ROSE TO UPPER 20S SO FAR. THERE IS STRONG WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC WARMS 850 TO 4C BY 00Z OVER SW LWR FROM -2C NOW. COULD SEE NEAR 40 SRN CWA SO WILL INCREASE RANGE OVER SRN COUNTIES TO 35 TO 40 FOR AFTERNOON HIGH. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 815 PM MST SAT JAN 15 2000 ...UPDATE TO STATE AND TFX ZONE FORECASTS... ARCTIC AMS HAS BACKDOORED TO JUST W OF A CTB-GTF LINE BY 02Z. SFC HI OVER SASK AND GREATEST SFC PRES RISES OVER DAKOTAS SUGGEST ARCTIC MAY NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER W...ALTHO SFC PRES FALLS W OF CONT DVD WILL TEND TO PULL SYS. NEW ETA/RUC SUGGESTS CONT WAA WILL ERODE WRN FRINGES OF ARCTIC AND PUSH IT BACK N AND E OVERNIGHT. WAA OVERRUNNING ARCTIC COULD BRING FREEZING PRECIP TO E SLOPES AS WELL AS FEW SW VALLEYS. LATEST STL IMAGERY SHOWS PAC CST VORT CENTER TAKING MORE NLY TRAJECTORY ALONG WA/OR CST WHILE ANOTHER S/WV TROF TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NV. NEW ETA IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE/UVV E OF DVD SUN...TRACKING STRONGEST DYNAMICS FURTHER ACROSS SRN BC/ALTA. IF MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH...WAA OVER ARCTIC AMS AND COLDER VALLEYS COULD STILL BRING SIG SNOWFALL SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT WATCHES IN TACT. HAVE UPDATED FOR MIN TEMPS NRN PORTIONS OF CWA. WILL UPDATE FOR BETTER CHC OF SNOW SW VALLEYS TONIGHT DUE TO OVERRUNNING PRECIP AS WELL AS POSSIBLE FREEZING PRECIP. SFP E OF DVD COVERS COLDER MIN TEMPS PER BIL/GGW AFD. UPDATE WILL BE FOR SW MT AND PENDING ANY CHANGES PER MSO AFD. EYSSAUTIER GTF 2440 HLN 3651 HVR 1661 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 900 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 DISC: AT 01Z SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST AND WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT A FEW MORE HOURS TO RADIATE BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER OBSERVED IN IR THIS EVENING APPEARS TO DISSIPATING A LITTLE AND RUC AND 18Z ETA ARE SHOWING RH VALUES WITH THE CIRRUS AND AC TO BE 50 TO 60 PERCENT. SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CWF: WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE WATERS SO WILL TWEAK THE INITIAL WORDING OF CWF AND GO WITH INCREASING SW WINDS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH TIME. .ILM...NONE. HAWKINS nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 308 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 COORD WITH YUL...MERCI! HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE ON OUT TO SEA TO OUR EAST TONITE...AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYS MOVES EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO WESTERN QUE. THIS STORM TO TRACK ACRS SOUTHERN QUE EARLY ON SUN BEFORE IT RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME ON SUN EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BE WRAPPING UP PRETTY WELL AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA ON SUN NITE... AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HI PRESS BUILDS DOWN ACRS EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. A STRONG NWLY PRESS GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS HI AND THE EXITING LOW ON MON...USHERING IN COLDER AIR ACRS THE REGION. FIRST THE EASY PART...IT/S PLENTY COLD FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT TO BE ALL SN. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL FINALLY HAVE A WHITE GROUND HERE AT BTV. THE FIRST FEW HUNDRETHS OF THE 12Z ETA/AVN QPF SHOULDN/T ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND...BUT RATHER MOISTEN THE LOW LVLS INSTEAD. 12Z NGM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN START-TIME BEFORE MIDNITE ON THE NEW YORK SIDE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN VT. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU 18Z SUN...MAXING OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND JUST AFTER 12Z SUN. THE STRONGEST UPR LVL DYNAMIX WILL BE TAKING PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS WELL. PCPN WON/T BE QUICK TO TOTALLY SHUT OFF AFTER THE LOW GOES BY ON SUN NITE (ESPECIALLY IN NE VT) WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND NWLY FLOW STILL AROUND. NOTED DECENT H85 F-GEN TO TAKE PLACE IN NE VT OVRNITE ON SUN AS WELL. GOES-8 IR SAT PIX SHOW THICKER CLDS MOVING SE ACRS NEW YORK STATE ATTM. EXPECT CLDS TO THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT WITH SN TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA (FROM WEST TO EAST) LATER TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SN TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON SUN. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN VT...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK. HOWEVER...SHSN TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS INTO SUN NITE AND MON WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR THERE. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL BE A CHANGING CONSTANTLY WITH RISING TEMPS FROM LATER TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT GOOD FLUFF-FACTOR EXPECTED INITIALLY. YUL WILL MOST LIKELY BE GOING WITH HIR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THEIR FORECAST...SINCE THEIR FA WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK. WE BOTH WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME BIG-TIME WRAP-AROUND (IN THE EASTERN TOWNSHIPS OF QUE AND IN NE VT) INTO SUN NITE. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE UNKNOWN (A.K.A. THE EXTENDED PERIOD)...BIG HI PRESS RIDGE BUILDING THRU THE FA ON TUE. A BIG OCEAN STORM SHOULD MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SE ON WED...AS A WEAKER STORM MOVES DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. ON THU...AS THE BIG OCEAN STORM MOVES UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE SECOND STORM WILL BE SCOOTING OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG. CHC OF SN/SHSN LOOKS GOOD FOR THOSE TWO DAYS RIGHT NOW...MORE LIKE REAL WINTER. WORK ZONES ARE A MEMORY. FINAL ZFP AFTER A FEW TWEAKS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP AND RUC DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST OBS TRENDS. .BTV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NYZ026>031- 034-035-VTZ001>010. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1006 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 A LIL NIPPY THIS MORNING ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SEE PNSBTV FOR DETAILS. HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE EAST ACRS NEW ENG TODAY. WK STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO WESTERN QUE TONITE...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OUT TO SEA TO OUR EAST. H85 RIDGE NOT TO CREST ACRS THE FA UNTIL AFT 18Z...WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ACRS THE FA RIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN (MAXIMIZING 00-12Z SUN). 12Z RUC HAS MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TDY. T1MAX ALSO AGREES WITH THIS. RUC ALSO SHOWS ENUFF MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY BY LATER TODAY TO KEEP INCREASING CLDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE ST LAW VLY TODAY AS WELL. ANY PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFT 00Z TONITE. GOES-8 IR SAT PIX SHOW THICKER CLDS MOVING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. TRACKING THESE CLDS HAS THEM MOVING INTO WESTERN NY STATE AFT 16Z. JUST SOME THIN HI CLDS AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF CLDS... SO EMPHASIZED MORE SUN FOR EASTERN ZONES TDY. NOT MANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ZONES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. WORK ZONES AWAY. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT 14Z LAMP DATA AND LATEST OBS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 315 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 OZFFWA AVBL. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME SIGN OF WEAKNESS IN NRN ATL BLOCK LATE IN PD LKLY GIVING GRTL INFLUX OF CAN AIR/DEEPER TROF WITH MONDAYS SYS. IN MEANTIME LONG WAVE TROFS OFF EACH COAST WITH FAST SHORT WAVE ACRS SCNTL CAN INTO GRTLKS OVRNGHT. MSAS 3HR PRES CHNG AND RUC SUGGESTING THAT ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON MN ARROWHEAD CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ELONGATED TROF INTO NE. WL GIVE NOD TO ETA. 75KT MID LVL SPEED MAX TO BRUSH NRTH OF FA OVERNIGHT. MSTR DEPTH NOT GREAT AND WL CONT WITH SML CHC TRACE EVENT...ALL LIQUID AS EVEN HILLSDALE MI TIME SECTIONS SHOW WARM WET BULB PROFILES. WITH LOW FURTHER NORTH WL LKLY SEE MORE WARM AIR INTO FA OVERNIGHT. WCNTL WI ALREADY TO 40F. WL INDICATE NEAR STEADY NORTH AND LOWS NEAR CURRENT VALUES RMNDR AS SOME ADDITIONAL LT AFT RISES EXPECTED. FROPA ACRS FA LT SUN MORNING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE IN AFTN. FALLING TEMPS WITH 6-8C FALL IN 925 MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT DAY. BCMG CLDY AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH HI 800-400 MB MSTR. MODELS CONT TO TREND COLDER ON MON. PCPN TYPE IN QUESTION FAR S AND MAY INDICATE CHC MIX. STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY DY5 FOR LES POTNL. .IWX...NONE PBM in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 232 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2000 ...TEMPS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGE... ALL MODELS INITIALIZED SIMILAR WITH BROAD RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW OVER CONUS WITH SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CONUS...WITH LOW OVER GREAT LAKES AND LARGE RIDGE OVER EAST COAST. MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN SOLUTION WITH SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF PACIFIC TROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN CONUS. MODELS ALL SHIFT CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH EAST INTO GREAT LAKES REGION AS LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA. BY 36-48 HOURS...ALL MODELS INDICATE WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. BASED ON 06Z ANALYSIS AND MODEL INITIALIZATION...WILL RUN WITH ETA SOLUTION. TODAY...CURRENT LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN CWA INDICATED WELL BY 1000-850 MB RELATIVE FIELDS FROM RUC. THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DISSIPATION TO BE INHIBITED OVER WEST CWA BY EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS ALONG WITH MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AND SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. TONIGHT...850 MB TROUGH ACCESS TO MOVE THROUGH CWA...VEERING WINDS TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DRYING OF ATMOSPHERE. THUS WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND MORE MODERATING TEMPS. WILL MENTION A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE EARLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST CWA...WITH 700 MB OMEGA FIELDS INDICATING GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. LIMITING FACTOR TO BE MOISTURE. WILL GO NEAR GUIDANCE TEMPS...LOWS IN THE 20S. MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM UP WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND EARLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM 6-7 C OVER NORTHERN CWA TO 12-13 C IN SOUTHWEST...THIS INDICATES HIGHS IN MID 50S NORTH...TO MID 60S SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION TO OFFSET THIS A BIT. WILL GO WITH WARMER FAN NUMBERS...50 TO 55 NORTH...AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST. EXTENDED...WITH ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING...AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FLIP FLOPPING TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. TUESDAY TO BE MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO GREAT LAKES REGION...COOLER EASTERLY FLOW. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO 40S. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20S. WEDNESDAY MRF INDICATES TROUGH PASSAGE WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST. 850 MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE 10 TO 12 C RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH...INTO THE 50S SOUTH. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 20S. THURSDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO REGION. MAY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN NORTH...INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS. .LBF...NONE. M. MUTCHLER ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 915 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 NO BIG CHANGES ON THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE. TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED FORECAST MINIMA...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT THEM TO HOLD STEADY ...OR RISE...AS CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. 18Z MESOETA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...AS WELL AS LATEST RUC. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS IS. AGAIN...LATEST MESOETA SUPPORTS SOME MINISCULE AMOUNTS. NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. WINDS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER LAND. ON THE WATERS...WILL GO WITH GALE WARNING AS MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. .PHI...GALE WARNING NJ/DE COAST AND DE BAY. SZATKOWSKI pa EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 345 AM PST SUN JAN 16 2000 A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN IS LIKELY AT TIMES AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS NOTED EARLIER...LOWER LEVELS OF AIRMASS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY BUT THIS EXPECTED TO END TODAY. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW ENHANCED AREA MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT AT 50 KTS. LATEST RUC MODEL 300-200 MB WINDS IN THIS REGION SHOW A SPEED MAXIMUM OF 100 KTS WHICH AGREES WITH OBSERVED PROPAGATION. FRONT EDGE CURRENTLY ABOUT 200 MILES OFF ORANGE COUNTY COAST SO EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS IT ONSHORE BY 15Z. MESOETA MODEL SHOWS THE 1000-850 MB LAYER RAPIDLY MOISTENING TO MORE THAN 65 PERCENT BY 18Z AND GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT BY 17/00Z. IF VALID RAIN SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL WITH TIMING...SO WENT FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY TONIGHT. THE SOUNDING FROM KVBG AND KNKX AND THE CONTINUED WARM SW FLOW INDICATE THE SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE QUITE HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AS COLD AIR POOL STILL WELL TO THE WEST OF FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS VICINITY 135/140 WEST LONGITUDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. ON THURSDAY THE MODELS SHIFT THE ORIENTATION MORE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND DROP 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOUT 60-120 METERS OVER SW CALIFORNIA. BEYOND 5 DAYS MRF CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS ZONAL FLOW. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NWSFO OXNARD...BROADBRUSH FOR EXTENDED LOOKS BEST WITH MENTION OF PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SAN 454 .SAN...NONE ATTM. BALFOUR ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 426 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2000 UPDATED...JUST GOT A SHIP REPORT OF 50G62KT OVER NRN LAKE HURON. RUC SHOWS AREA OF GREATER THAN 45 KNOTS 60FEET AGL GRADUALLY PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EXPANDING DOWN THE LAKE. GIVEN THIS...A WIND ADVISORY FOR HURON COUNTY IS STARTING TO SOUND A LOT MORE APPEALING...AND WL BE ISSUED. ZFP WL BE OUT SHORTLY. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... NRN STEAM SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE NRN LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY ATTM...AS PROGGED BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH DEEPER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. LOW WL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY...REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS BLASTING THRU THE CWA AS I TYPE. RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM WL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE BY LATE MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PRECIP CHANCES VERY EARLY AND VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...ANY POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT IN BETWEEN...WIND TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING...LARGELY BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS...A PRETTY SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK (ENHANCED BY THE LAKES) IS INVADING NRN LWR MI NOW. THIS IS PRODUCING --SHSN...AND THIS WL CONTINUE AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH. DECENT MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION AT 3500 FEET...AND SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WL BE FALLING MOST OF THE DAY. NOW WIND. SURFACE LOW IS ALREADY DEEPER THAN PROGGED...RESULTING IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE MOMENT. POTENT PRESSURE RISES...GREATER THAN 8 MB/3 HOURS... VICINITY ISLE ROYALE. THE BEST GRADIENT WILL SLIDE EAST TO GEORGIAN BAY AND POINTS NORTH...BUT WILL STILL BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE OVER LAKE HURON. WL BE BRISK EVERYWHERE...BUT AM CONCERNED WE MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG HURON COUNTY SHORE. A NNW FETCH MEANS EASTERN HURON COUNTY WUD BE UNDER THE GUN...RIGHT WHERE P58 CAN MEASURE IT. AT THE MOMENT...GIVEN EXTREME LOCALIZATION OF THREAT AND MARGINAL AS BEST...WL AVOID A HEADLINE...BUT WL WORD ZFP STRONGLY. THIS SAME AREA IS ALSO WHERE LAKE EFFECT -SHSN COULD GO THIS AFTERNOON...AS PORTRAYED BY ETA-6. INVERSION IS TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT WL REALLY CRASH THE INVERSION...DOWN TO 1500 FEET OR SO. THAT AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WL RAPIDLY PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT...OR CLOUDS FOR THAT MATTER. WINDS WL BE LIGHT...AND WE WL STILL HAVE SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUNGING IS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE SPILLING OVER THE SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN LAKES. WILL STILL AIM A FAIR AMOUNT BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR. MOISTURE INCREASES RAPDILY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MONDAY...AS WAA GETS GOING AHEAD OF THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM...WITH AN ASSIST FROM A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS MOISTURE WL GRADUALLY SATURATE DOWNWARD DURING THE DAY...AND ETA JUST ABOUT PINCHES OFF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BY EVENING. INDEED...ETA GRIDDED DATA SPITS OUT A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH CHC POPS ALREADY IN FORECAST LATE MONDAY. WL CONTINUE TREND OF BELOW FWC TEMPERATURES...WITH SNOW COVER...LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND A VERY COLD START. .DTX...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LAKE HURON HIGH WIND ADVISORY TODAY HURON COUNTY. ZOLTOWSKI mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1020 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2000 STORM SYS TO TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND THEN RE- DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ME THIS EVENING. AS THIS STORM MOVES OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNITE TONITE...THE FA WILL BE SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THAT STORM AND A LARGE AREA OF HI PRESS THAT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN ACRS EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. 09Z RUC APPEARS TO BE A LIL TOO DEEP WITH ITS CENTRAL PRESS AND A LIL TOO FAR TO THE NORTH WITH ITS STORM TRACK. IT SHOWS HIGHS TODAY IN THE 20S WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A W-NW DIRECTION BY LATER TODAY. WIND SHIFT TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. HAVE ADDED GUSTY WORDING TO TODAY AND TONIGHT/S ZONE GROUPINGS. TEMPS TO TAKE QUITE A TUMBLE INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WILL HANDLE THAT ON THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE. H5 VORT LOBE DIVING DOWN ACRS THE FA ATTM. RUC ALSO SHOWS BEST QPF TO BE IN NE VT TODAY WHERE ANOTHER 6-9" COULD FALL ON TOP OF WHATEVER WAS ALREADY ON THE GROUND AT 12Z. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. BUFCAN DATA SHOWS LOTS OF INSTABILITY SHSN BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN THAT/S MOVING THROUGH THE FA ATTM...WITH LOTS OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUPPORTING THESE SHSN. BASED ON REPORTS THAT WE/VE RECEIVED HERE AT BTV...AMOUNTS SO FAR APPEAR TO BE: LESS THAN 1" IN THE ST LAW VLY...GREATER THAN 1" IN THE ADIRONDACKS ?? (NOT MANY REPORTS FROM THAT NECK OF THE WOODS!)... LESS THAN 1" IN THE CHAMP VLY (WITH 2-4" IN THE HIR SLOPES)...2-6" IN NE/NC VT...AND AROUND AN INCH IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SRN VT. LOTS OF BLSN OCCURRING ATTM...SO SN HARD TO MEASURE. HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW TOTALS...TEMPS AND WINDS IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE GOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL UPGRADE NE/NC VT TO WARNING BASED ON REPORTS RECEIVED SO FAR. VLY LOCATIONS MAY NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE HIR TRRN WILL...SO WILL LET REMAINING HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. PRELIM WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ISSUANCE AFTER A FEW TWEAKS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST OBS TRENDS. .BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING VTZ003-004-006>008- 010 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING NYZ026>031-034- 035-VTZ001-002-005-009. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1007 AM SUN JAN 16 2000 DISC: 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES HOLDING ON ALNG SE CST AND CDFNT ALNG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLDS ARS THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH SOME LWR CLDS ALNG THE MTS. AREA RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWING SOME PCPN MAINLY W OF SC THIS MORNING. MORNING RUC SIMILIAR TO 00Z RUNS. WL GO WITH MSTL CLDY PIEDMONT AND INCREASING CLDS ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLDS APPEAR TO BE HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING SEWD. VWP SHOWING 40 KTS AT 2000 FT AND BL WNDS EXPECTED TO BE ARND 20 KTS...WL CONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFT OUT OF THE SW. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO FWC VALUES AND A LITTLE ABOVE LAMP VALUES...WL STILL GO BLO FWC/FAN DUE TO T1 TEMPS AND MID LVL CLDS. .CAE...NONE. LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1030 AM CST SUN JAN 16 2000 UPDATED AND CREATED TWO NEW ZONES GROUPS ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...MAIN PROBLEMS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL OCCURRING JUST WEST OF CWA. FIRST FOR TEMPERATURES...LATEST ETA/NGM/RUC SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONG WITH LATEST FLP GUIDANCE INDICATED FORECAST HIGHS ARE TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. LATEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT RISEN AT ALL AND DID DROP A DEGREE OR TWO IN A FEW LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE STILL FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA LATE THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN PIERRE TO NEAR 10 BELOW NEAR SISSETON. WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY IN THE MOBRIDGE AND PIERRE AREAS AND DROP THEM TWO CATEGORIES ABERDEEN ON EASTWARD. DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL GET MUCH ABOVE ZERO IN THE SISSETON AREA TODAY AND ADDED A NEW GROUP TO THE ZONE SET TO COVER THIS EVENT. SEPARATED THE ABERDEEN AND WATERTOWN GROUPS DUE TO THE FACT THAT DECENT SNOW COVER REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE SECOND PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS THE SNOWFALL THAT IS OCCURRING JUST WEST OF CWA. PHILLIP AT 10 AM WAS DOWN TO 1 1/2 MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA AFTER LOOKING AT RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGES DID INDICATE THE CLOUD TOPS WERE WARMING ACROSS THE STATE AND THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD DUE TO THE LOWERING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING AMONG THE FORECASTERS IN THE OFFICE IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE CHANCES OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. SINCE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE IS EXTREMELY COLD... THINKING THAT SLEET COULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF WE SHOULD GET A WARM LAYER ALOFT TONIGHT. ETA PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST HINTS THAT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NOT CHANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME UNTIL LOOKING AT MORE DATA. .ABR...NONE ECKBERG sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 300 PM CST SUN JAN 16 2000 VERY TOUGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. FOR EXAMPLE...BETWEEN THE 3 MODELS...17 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE TEMP FORECAST AT 17/18Z. FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG KY/TN BORDER AT 20Z. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AXIS ALONG MS RIVER. THREE HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGE ZERO LINE ALSO ALONG MS RIVER. FRONT MAY BE PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS CORE OF SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST- SOUTHEAST. FRONT SHOULD STILL VERIFY ETA/AVN POSITIONS A LOT BETTER. IF THIS VERIFIES...MAY AS WELL THROW FWC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE TRASH. LATEST RUC VALID 17/06Z SHOWS TEMPERATURE PATTERN SIMILAR TO AVN/ETA. IN ANY CASE...FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AS WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE MAIN COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS CWA TONIGHT WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA WITH PRECIP TOTALS REMAINING LIGHT. LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST DURING DAY MONDAY... SO BEST POPS WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...STILL IN CHANCE RANGE. MAY EVEN SEE A LITTLE SUN IN ABOUT WESTERN HALF OF AREA...WHICH WOULD AGGRAVATE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PROBLEM EVEN MORE. MAIN FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING MOISTURE OUT OF AREA. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ALL BUT NORTHEAST... WHERE WILL GO LOW END OF LIKELY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. BOTTOM LINE ON TEMPS...WILL GO WELL ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE ON MINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MUCH CLOSER TO FAN/ETA SOLUTION. MODELS COME INTO LINE A LITTLE MORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ANY VARIATION FROM GUIDANCE ONLY A FEW DEGREES. EXTENDED...ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MODERATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. AFTER FROPA...TEMPS DROP AROUND 10 DEGREES...BUT ONLY TO AROUND CLIMATOLOGIC NORMALS. 10 .MEM...NONE. tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 324 PM EST SUN JAN 16 2000 COORD WITH "THE BUF" AND GYX...THANX GUYS. ENERGY BEING TRANSFERRED ATTM FROM STORM SYS NEAR CYSC TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESS ON THE ME COAST. 12Z AVN MODEL TRACK OF THE FIRST LOW APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH. THIS SECOND STORM TO BOMB OUT OVER THE GULF OF ME THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVRNITE TONITE. ALSO...BIG HI PRESS WILL BE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL CANADA OVRNITE TONITE...WITH THE FA BEING SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN. THIS HI TO GRADUALLY NOSE DOWN ACRS THE FA THRU MON NITE. STRONG NORTHERLY PRESS GRADIENT TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z MON. HAVE BEEN TRACKING COLD FRONT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FRONT TO BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA BY 21Z. PRETTY GOOD SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING VSBYS DOWN FOR A BIT AND EVEN CAUSING A LIL LTG NEAR KART EARLIER (THANX ALY FOR THE HEADS UP ON THAT). WRAP-AROUND SHSN A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN EASTERN VT TONITE AND EARLY MON WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AROUND FROM NOW RIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON. STRONG H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE EARLY TONITE (WITH HI 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES AS WELL)...THEN WAA ACTUALLY TAKING PLACE AT H85 FROM THE NORTH IN THAT WRAP-AROUND FROM 06Z TO 18Z MON. NORTHERLY UPR LVL FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA THROUGH EARLY MON NITE. "TOTAL" CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE ON MON NITE. WK STORM SYS SCOOTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OH VLY ON TUE...WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. AS FOR TEMPS...THEY/LL BE TAKING QUITE A TUMBLE OVRNITE...AND WITH WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH MON WILL HAVE TO HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH MONDAY. WIND CHILLS IN THE ST LAW VLY AND NE/NC VT MAY TOUCH -40 DEG F IN SPOTS TONITE. COLDEST AIR TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE OVRNITE ON MONDAY AND INTO TUE...AFTER THE WIND DIES DOWN. LK CHAMP LK EFFECT 06Z TO 18Z MON?? MAYBE...WITH A BIG ENUFF LK-H85 TEMP DIFFERENCE...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING RIGHT NOW WITH ALL THAT/S ALREADY GOING ON. BASED ON REPORTS THAT WE/VE RECEIVED HERE AT BTV...TOTAL AMOUNTS SO FAR APPEAR TO BE: ABOUT 3" IN THE ADIRONDACKS...6"+ IN NE/NC VT... 1-3" IN A LOT OF THE VLYS...AND 2 BIG TENTHS OF AN INCH HERE AT BTV...WOW. LOTS OF BLSN OCCURRING...SO SN HARD TO MEASURE. ALSO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF CAR ACCIDENTS IN THE HIR TRRN OF VT TODAY. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WK CLIPPER SYS DROPPING ACRS ONT ON WED... THEN MOVING ACRS THE FA ON THU. NW FLOW ACRS THE FA ON FRI AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYS MOVES ACRS THE GREAT LKS...VERY ACTIVE WINTER WX. WORK ZONES AWAY. FINAL ISSUANCE AFTER A FEW TWEAKS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP AND RUC DATA...AS WELL AS THE LATEST OBS TRENDS. .BTV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NYZ026>031-034-035- VTZ001>012. MURRAY vt