AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 930 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2000 SYNOPSIS: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH BITTER TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE AS RUC/ETA BLYR WIND FIELDS TO 30 KTS MIXING TO SURFACE WILL COMBINE WITH BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER EVALUATING AFTERNOON GUIDANCE MAY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES INTO EARLY TONIGHT. VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW FACING TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. DOWNEAST ONLY A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WITH STRONG CAA CONTINUING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. COASTAL WATERS: RUC/ETA BL WIND PROGS INDICATE NW GALES CONT THRU THIS EVE BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE SCA THESHOLDS LATER TNGT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON SAT AS SFC HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA. .CAR...WIND CHILL WARNING ZNS 1>6/10/11 THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZNS 15>17/29/30 THIS AFTERNOON. GLW. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1115 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2000 MQT 88D SHOWS BACKEDGE OF NARROW BAND OF -SN MOVG RAPIDLY THRU WRN ALGER AND WRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. DPVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHD OF WK SHRTWV SUPPORTING SNOW BAND...WHILE BEHIND SNOW DNVA...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE AS NOTED ON LATEST WV LOOP. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED WRN COUNTIES EARLIER THIS EVNG TO TAKE OUT THE -SN. MAY NEED TO BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUDS AS LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. ALSO...00Z ETA A BIT SLOWER ON NEXT PAC SHRTWV NOW DUE IN LATE SAT. ETA INDICATING BEST DPVA...QG FORCING AND UVV OVER FA IN THE AFT. ETA APPEARS TO BE HANDLING POSITION AND STRENGTH OF VORT MAX AS IT MOVES THRU WRN ALTA PER LATEST WV LOOP. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND OBSTREAM OBS ALSO SEEM TO VERIFY ETA SOLN. THUS...ADJUSTED 2ND PD WORDING OF PCPN TO AFT...OVR ALL ZONES. TEMPS HOLDING STEADY TONIGHT UNDER CLDS AND WAA SLY FLOW. PREV FCST TEMPS STILL ON TARGET WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1000 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2000 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE OH MOVG EAST. SOUTH WIND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. KGRR-88D SHOWS MID CLOUDS DEPARTING THE AREA AND THIS IS CONFIRMED VIA THE LATEST IR LOOP. NATIONAL IR LOOP SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUT HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY MAKING IT INTO SW LOWER. MID SECTIONS OF 00Z RAOBS WERE PRETTY DRY. LATEST RUC ALONG WITH 12Z MODELS INDICATE STRONG WAA LATE TONIGHT. THUS I LIKE THE CURRENT WORDING OF STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS. WILL PROBABLY MENTION CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY AND WILL LIKELY MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BY MORNING. .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1010 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2000 FORECAST CONCERN FOR ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENT REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD AREA OF SW FLOW WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS EXITING EAST AND LOW OVER THE NB/SD REGION. ISENTROPIC MOISTENING ONGOING WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH RIBBONS OF ENHANCED OR HIGHER CLOUD TOPS/LIGHT SNOW INDICATED ON LATEST SATELLITE IR/RADAR LOOPS. KAPX 00Z SOUNDING MOIST AT/ABOVE 700 MB...WHILE ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE AROUND 900 MB (INDICATIVE OF THE SHALLOW LAKE INSTBY THAT WAS STILL IN PLACE WHEN THE LOW-LVL WINDS WERE SW). HOWEVER...SOUNDING IS DRY BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB. 00Z RUC FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A SIMILAR PICTURE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN LWR MI: MOISTURE DEPTH IS NOT REAL OPTIMAL...PARTICULARLY AT LOWER LEVELS. MESO-ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE (AROUND 80 PCT RH WITHIN 1000-500 MB LAYER) ACROSS EASTERN UPR MI OVERNIGHT. LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE GIVEN A BOOST FROM SHALLOW LAKE MI ENHANCEMENT WITH THE SSW FLOW PATTERN...AS LAKE TO 900 MB DELTA T'S REMAIN ABOVE 10C THROUGH DAYBREAK (DESPITE GRADUAL 900 MB WARMING). STILL..MESO-ETA AND RUC FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER LAYER BETWEEN 850-700 MB. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MINOR SNOW AMOUNTS (INCH OR TWO) AS PER THE PRIOR FORECAST...WHICH ALSO MESHES UP WELL WITH RUC/MESO-ETA LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS (.05" TO .10" WITH A 20-25 TO 1 SNOW-WATER RATIO). ELSEWHERE (OVER NRN LWR)...FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH DRIER REGIME BELOW 700 MB. AS A RESULT...EXPECT JUST OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NRN LOWER MI COUNTIES TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. STEADY TO SLOWLY-RISING TEMPS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION... CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST WORDING. THEREFORE ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY MODIFICATION TO THE TEMP FORECAST. UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS DUE OUT BY 1030 PM. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 909 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. TIME-HEIGHT SERIES INDICATE CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WILL ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AND LATEST RUC SHOWS WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 925 MB THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS CLOSING IN RAPIDLY. SOME FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED IN ALEXANDRIA AND APPLETON. HENCE...WILL BE ADDING AREAS OF FOG TO THE MN AND FAR WESTERN WI COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT. ALSO RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A TAD IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. .MSP...NONE. HILTBRAND mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST RUC MODEL...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCE OF SNOW OVER OUR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THAT GENERATES GOOD 850 MB TO 700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED HOWEVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS HINTS THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...REFLECTED IN THE DEW POINTS...IS FEEDING INTO THE AREAS WERE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AND WHERE RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY PAINTED ON THE RADAR DISPLAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MENTION OF UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW SHOULD BE A GOOD CALL. .MSP...NONE WH mn FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 825 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 ALL QUIET ON THE WEATHER FRONT THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOWS STREAM OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES UNABATED FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST ACROSS ND INTO MN. TIGHT 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND PROGGED TO REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. SEEING SOME -SN AND LOWER CIGS ALONG AND NORTH OF 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES OVERNIGHT FOR FAR NRN ZONES...O/W DRY. LATEST RUC SHOWS NEXT DECENT 50H WAVE TO MOVE INTO SRN SK BY 12Z SAT AND THIS MAY BRING A SHOT OF SOME -SN TO NRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. MAY TWEEK SAT WORDING SOME...BUT DO PLAN ON LEAVING SOME MENTION OF -SN IN THE FCST IN NRN ZONES. TEMP-WISE...VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA NOT CONDUSIVE IN BRINGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTH TONIGHT...AND WITH CLOUDS DO NOT EXPECT A BIG DROP IN TEMPS. WILL CHECK OVER TEMPS IN ZONES...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE A TAD. UDPATE OUT BY 9 PM. .FGF...NONE. RIDDLE nd TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 UPDATES ZNS TO INCREASE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN ZNS. MESONET/LATEST SFC DATA SUGGESTING WINDS ALREADY OVER FCSTD RANGE ACROSS OK PNHDL. STRONG LLVL GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN 1045 HIGH OVER WRN TN AND LEE TROUGH IN CO. SFC-H8 GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 15Z RUC SHOWING SOME TAPERING OF WINDS ACROSS FAR WRN ZNS BY 21Z AS HIGH MOVES E. SATL VIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATING THICKER CLOUDS STREAMING E ACROSS NRN ZNS...WITH THINNER VARIETY IN S. ANY AFFECTS ON TEMPS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 ...UPDATED PORTION... WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF CONSIDERABLY AROUND THE REGION THIS EVENING. ANIMATION OF SFC FEATURES SHOW A LOOSENING IN THE PRES GRADIENT OVR SRN WI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DECOUPLING OCCURING. 3HR PRES FALLS ONLY 3MB NOW AND ALMOST E OF US. IT APPEARS WNDS WON/T BLOW AS STRONG AS PREV INDICATED. TEMP TREND ALSO CONTINUING DOWNWARD AND WITH LGTER WNDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...WL NEED TO DROP THEM SOME. INTERMEDIATE 18Z RUN OF ETA SHOWS TEMPS NOT RECOVERING MUCH OVRNGT...SO WL BE A BIT MORE VAGUE ON FINAL TEMPS BY MORNING. IT ALSO SHOWS LGTR WNDS OVRNGT. DAVIS ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FCST FOCUS ON SNW CHCS...WNDS..AND TEMPS TONGT. IN THE SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE BAND OF WAA CLDS/LITE SNOW CONTS EWD ACRS FAR ERN CWA. ETA/NGM BOTH PUSH MID LVL RH OUT OF CWA BY 00Z WHILE RUC/AVN HOLD 70+ RH BACK A BIT. BUT ALL PROGS TAKE CORE OF UVV/RH TO LWR MICH BY 06Z. DUE TO SWIFT MOVMENT OF WAA PCPN WILL TAKE PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR THIS EVE AND COVER LINGERING FLURYS WITH NOWCAST. LARGE CORE OF 7 MB 3HRLY PRES FALLS OVR ERN IA MVG EWD SIGNALS A WINDY NITE FOR THE CWA. H8 PROGS BRING A 40-50KT CORE OF SW WINDS INTO SRN WISC BY 00Z. PROGS ALSO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT H8 WAA OVERNITE. FWC WND GUID UNDERDONE...SO WILL DISREGARD. TEMPS OVR CWA SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FOR EVE HRS...THEN RISE LATER ON. SNOWCOVER OVR RGN NOT TO BE A FACTOR AS WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNITE. IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS TAKE UPPER JET NWD INTO LK SUP RGN WITH TIME. WITH LACK OF ANY H5 VORTS IN W-NW FLOW WX OVR CWA...WX TO BE NIL. MINOR SPOKE OF MID LVL UVV SWINGS ACRS AREA SAT...BUT VERY DRY MID LVL RH WILL JUST PRODUCE A FEW CLDS AND NO PCPN. ARRIVAL OF DRY BUT SHALLOW COLD FNT SAT NITE TO BE UNEVENTFUL AS MID/UPPR LVL FEATURES REMAIN FROM THE W-NW AND BULK OF COLD AIR STAYS OVR NRN WISC. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE SNOW EVENT SUN AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH SLIDES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...AVN H8 TEMP PROG SHOWS DELTA T NOT QUITE FAVORABLE ENUF FOR MENTN OF LK SNOW AT THIS TIME AND PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF WX SYSTEMS PREVENTING DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR. .UWNMS...VERY SIMILAR TO OTHR MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH RETARDING INVASION OF COLD AIR IN LATR FCST PDS. .MKX...NONE. 0.../.../...0 ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 FCST FOCUS ON SNW CHCS...WNDS..AND TEMPS TONGT. IN THE SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE BAND OF WAA CLDS/LITE SNOW CONTS EWD ACRS FAR ERN CWA. ETA/NGM BOTH PUSH MID LVL RH OUT OF CWA BY 00Z WHILE RUC/AVN HOLD 70+ RH BACK A BIT. BUT ALL PROGS TAKE CORE OF UVV/RH TO LWR MICH BY 06Z. DUE TO SWIFT MOVMENT OF WAA PCPN WILL TAKE PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR THIS EVE AND COVER LINGERING FLURYS WITH NOWCAST. LARGE CORE OF 7 MB 3HRLY PRES FALLS OVR ERN IA MVG EWD SIGNALS A WINDY NITE FOR THE CWA. H8 PROGS BRING A 40-50KT CORE OF SW WINDS INTO SRN WISC BY 00Z. PROGS ALSO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT H8 WAA OVERNITE. FWC WND GUID UNDERDONE...SO WILL DISREGARD. TEMPS OVR CWA SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FOR EVE HRS...THEN RISE LATER ON. SNOWCOVER OVR RGN NOT TO BE A FACTOR AS WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNITE. IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS TAKE UPPER JET NWD INTO LK SUP RGN WITH TIME. WITH LACK OF ANY H5 VORTS IN W-NW FLOW WX OVR CWA...WX TO BE NIL. MINOR SPOKE OF MID LVL UVV SWINGS ACRS AREA SAT...BUT VERY DRY MID LVL RH WILL JUST PRODUCE A FEW CLDS AND NO PCPN. ARRIVAL OF DRY BUT SHALLOW COLD FNT SAT NITE TO BE UNEVENTFUL AS MID/UPPR LVL FEATURES REMAIN FROM THE W-NW AND BULK OF COLD AIR STAYS OVR NRN WISC. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE SNOW EVENT SUN AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH SLIDES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...AVN H8 TEMP PROG SHOWS DELTA T NOT QUITE FAVORABLE ENUF FOR MENTN OF LK SNOW AT THIS TIME AND PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF WX SYSTEMS PREVENTING DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR. .UWNMS...VERY SIMILAR TO OTHR MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH RETARDING INVASION OF COLD AIR IN LATR FCST PDS. .MKX...NONE. 0.../.../...0 ZAJDEL wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD WARNING AT BOTTOM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 853 PM PST FRI JAN 14 2000 WILL NEED TO UPDATE FORECAST TO RAISE TONIGHT MINS BY SEVERAL DEG...BEEF UP THE WINDS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...PLUS RAISE POPS AND SPEED UP TIMING...RAISE SNOW LEVELS...AND MAY GO WITH WS WARNING. COMPLEX WX PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER CAL TONIGHT. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MANY LOCALES AROUND 60 AGAIN WE HEAD INTO A WET WEEKEND. CURRENTLY 88D MOSAIC SHOWS TRAINING ECHOES UP TO 35 DBZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY. REDDING HAS RECIEVED 0.46 INCHES IN THE LAST 3 HOURS...WHILE MESONET GAGES SHOW 0.25 TO 0.90 OVER SHASTA COUNTY WITH 0.10 OR LESS IN THE CSTL RANGE. RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RACING INTO THE PACNW ALONG WITH THE PERSISTENT RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET PARKED JUST OFFSHORE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MODEL H85 MOISTURE AND OMEGA HAVE BEEN CAPTURING THIS THE BEST AND 00Z RUNS SLIDE IT SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NORTH COAST REGION TOMORROW SLIGHT H5 RIDGING OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROF OVER 135W. TEMPS THIS HOUR AT 5500FT AT 41F OVER SHASTA COUNTY AND THE SAME AT BLUE CANYON. KBLU DEWPOINT AT 28F SO SOME WET BULB COOLING WILL OCCUR BUT SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE ABV THEM. FURTHER SOUTH THE ETA MODEL HAS BEEN VERY AGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN SIGNIFICANT H7 MOISTURE AND UVV TO CENTRAL CAL. THE 00Z RUN HAS BACKOFF COMPARED TO THE 12Z OUTPUT BUT STILL GENERATES -8 MICROBARS OF OMEGA AND 90 PERCENT PLUS H7 RH BY 12Z SAT OVER SACRAMENTO. THIS TRANSLATES INTO QPF VALUES NEAR A HALF INCH THRU THIS PERIOD. FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS THE 00Z NGM AND AVN SOLUTION HAS MOST PRECIP OVER THE NRN SAC VLY BY 12Z. 03Z RUC IS SIMILAR KEEPING ITS PRECIP OVER NORCAL UNDER THE UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH LITTLE OVER THE WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGION...THOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS THE RAPIDLY INCREASING H7 RH FIELD THRU 15Z. NGM/AVN SHOW SATURATED RH FIELDS BUT THE ETA UVM IS MUCH STRONGER. WITH 30KTS DEPICTED ON THE 88D VWP OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THIS TIME THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP QUICKER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. AT THIS TIME 88D SHOWS SOME PRECIP FORMING IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE WITH LIGHT RETURNS OFFSHORE WEST OF THE BAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A HUGE CLOB OF MOISTURE 125-130W AND 32N AIMED AT CAL. 00Z KOAK SOUNDING ALREADY HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT 0.84 INCHES. MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT OMEGA AND DEEP MOISTURE THRU SATURDAY. SINCE USUALLY THE LOWER VALLEY DOES NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT/DYNAMICS...ITS HARD TO BUY THE ETA QPF AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN TRENDS IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT ACCURATE AND EXPECT RADARS TO FILL-IN OVERNIGHT. NEW RUNS SHOW H7 TEMPS AT -3 TO -5C OVER CAL WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP WHICH WOULD YIELD SNOW LEVELS NEAR 6000FT IN SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS GOES INTO FULL EFFECT. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS AN APPARENT COUPLED JET SETS UP OVER NORCAL WITH EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND STRONG PVA FOR THE NORTH COAST BTWN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DEEP SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THRU OUR CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. 00Z MODEL TIMING OF THE OPENING WAVE IS VERY SIMILAR. THIS SHOULD BE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THE VALLEY. BY THIS TIME 45 KTS OF H85 WIND MOVES INLAND WHILE H7 SW WINDS INCREASE TO 65 KTS. WITH THESE OROGRAPHICS AND AVAILABLE MSTR SNOW WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET. GIVEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH EXCELLENT MIXING STRONG WINDS COULD REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY 12Z SUNDAY THE STRONG SHORT WAVE HITS THE NORTH COAST WITH THE ETA SHOWING INCREDIBLE -20 MICROBARS/SEC OF UVV HITTING THE NORTH COAST AT 06Z AND THEN OVER CENTRAL CAL BY 12Z SUNDAY. WITH SUCH STRONG LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL FORM AND ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG H85 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HOLDS TOGETHER ON THE MODELS AND PEAKS NEAR 12Z SUNDAY AS THE BEST DIVERGENCE IS OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES IN...HOWEVER ABUNDANCT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH CONTINUED UP VALLEY FLOW. ETA ALSO GENERATES 200-300 J/KG CAPE OVER THE REGION WITH -10 TO -12C AIR AT H7...SO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE SAC AREA. UNCERTAINTY LINGERS WITH THE DEVELOPING EVENT ON MONDAY WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO CENTRAL CAL WITH H5 HEIGHTS UP TO 570DM AND A 140KT+ JET OVERHEAD. THE ECMWF AND MRF ADVERTISE VERY WET WX INTO MIDWEEK WHEN THE CLOSED LOW OVER 140W SENDS A WAVE INTO THE PACNW. .STO...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY INCLUDING LASSEN PARK AS WELL AS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TARDY ca SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 840 PM MST FRI JAN 14 2000 ...UPDATE TO STATE AND TFX ZONE FORECASTS... ARCTIC AMS CONTS TO SHALLOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. TFX 00Z RAOB INDICATED DEPTH OF ARCTIC ABOUT 1000 FT AGL...WHILE LATEST VWD PROFILE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEPTH REMAINS. 0315Z LWT OBS PER BIL AFD ALSO ENCOURAGING. 03Z SFC ANAL SHOWS SFC LOW OVER SE BC WITH SFC TROF EXTENDING JUST W OF GTF. RUC AND NEW ETA BRING SFC TROF E OF GTF SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. AS SFC TROF SHIFTS E AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS ALOFT QUICKLY REACHING THE SFC. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE NRN AND E SLOPE ZONES FOR GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. CENTRAL MT WILL POSE UNIQUE PROBLEM AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE ABOVE ARCTIC PER LWT OBS...WHILE LOWER PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN COLD AIR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WILL REWORD ZONES ACCORDINGLY. EYSSAUTIER GTF 1003 HLN 1114 HVR 1114 mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 940 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2000 MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWING QUITE A WARM BUBBLE OF AIR FAR S MN INTO NEB. ANY FURTHER WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OVER SE MN OR SW WI WITH PRES FALLS SHIFTING EAST. TEMPS STILL MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS STILL STREAMING OVER AREA BUT SOME THINNING NOTED. LATEST RUC SHOWING A DRYING TREND IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. THINK THE GENERAL PT SUNNY FORECAST WILL STILL WORK. HI TEMP FCST OFF AWIPS KMPX SOUNDING SHOWING LOW TO MID 40S. THINK THIS IS TOO WARM FOR MSP AREA BUT MAY BE CLOSE IN SNOW FREE AREAS OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...IF CLOUDS THIN. MAY BUMP UP A BIT FAR SOUTH. .MSP...NONE. RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 345 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2000 MAIN CONCERNS...SNOW ACCUMS N MN TDY...TEMPS. SFC PRES PATTERN SHOWING LOW ENTERING SD WITH STNRY BNDRY E AND N INTO MN/WI. ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER MN TDY AND LIFT N AND E ALONG TROF/STNRY FRNT. ETA HAVING THE BEST LUCK WITH CURRENT PCPN SHIELD AND AGREES WELL WITH 12HR RUC FCST...SO WILL GO W/ ETA THIS FCST. EXPECT SFC LOW TO SPLIT THE CWA TODAY...WITH A SHOT OF SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO FAR N MN. SNOW HAS ALRDY STARTED IN NW MN AND THE I290 SFC SHOWS BEST LIFT ACRS N. H5 VORT MAX REMAINS MOSTLY IN CANADA AND COND PRES DEFICITS POINT MAINLY TO N ZONES. HOWEVER...WILL PULL BACK CURRENT 2-4 INCHES AND GO WITH 1-2 BASED ON SPEED OF THE INITIAL WAVE...AND MODEL TRENDS GOING WITH LOWER ACCUMS. BAND OF SNOW WILL BE NARROW...WITH NEXT SET OF ZONES TO THE S ONLY SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH. TNGT...AFTR THE LOW PASSES...A SFC TROF LINGERS BEHIND ACRS LK SUPR AND N MN. WE GET A SHOT OF CAA AS AN ELONGATED H5 VORT MAX SAGS S INTO THE AREA. WILL LV LOW POPS IN THE ARROWHD AND FLRS ELSEWHERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COLD NW FLOW WILL ALSO GET THE S SHORE LES GOING... MAINLY AFTR MIDNIGHT. NO SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECTED TO HELP SNOW...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO NR 5K FT BY SUN MORNING. H85 TEMPS DROP FROM -2C TO -16C OVRNT TNGT. I EXPECT SOME ACCUMS...BUT WIND DOESNT REMAIN FROM ONE DIRECTION FOR VERY LONG...WHICH SHLD HELP REDUCE TOTALS. WILL GO WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR TNGT AND LEAVE IT OPEN FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY ADVERTISES HIGH PRESS BUILDING IN...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. BUT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SHOW NEXT CHC OF SNOW. AVN STILL GOING WITH SEVERAL INCHES ACCUM FOR MOST OF CWA AND WILL NOT CHANGE GOING EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY DUE TO LOW PASSAGE TDY AND CAA TNGT. AS FOR HIGHS TDY...S OF LOW WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S...N OF LOW SHLD BE UPR TEENS AS COLD AIR IS ALRDY BEING DRAWN TWRD NW MN. TNGT...LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW GUID...BUT CLD COVER MAY HELP MODERATE A BIT. WILL GO 5 TO 10 BELOW GUID. SUNDAY WILL SEE LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY... DISSPITE THE SUNSHINE AS COLD AIRMASS SETTLES IN. COORD WITH FGF...THANKS. .DLH...NONE. SHIMON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1006 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 A LIL NIPPY THIS MORNING ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SEE PNSBTV FOR DETAILS. HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE EAST ACRS NEW ENG TODAY. WK STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO WESTERN QUE TONITE...AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OUT TO SEA TO OUR EAST. H85 RIDGE NOT TO CREST ACRS THE FA UNTIL AFT 18Z...WITH WAA TAKING PLACE ACRS THE FA RIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SUN (MAXIMIZING 00-12Z SUN). 12Z RUC HAS MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TDY. T1MAX ALSO AGREES WITH THIS. RUC ALSO SHOWS ENUFF MOISTURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY BY LATER TODAY TO KEEP INCREASING CLDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THERE. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE ST LAW VLY TODAY AS WELL. ANY PCPN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL AFT 00Z TONITE. GOES-8 IR SAT PIX SHOW THICKER CLDS MOVING ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ATTM. TRACKING THESE CLDS HAS THEM MOVING INTO WESTERN NY STATE AFT 16Z. JUST SOME THIN HI CLDS AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF CLDS... SO EMPHASIZED MORE SUN FOR EASTERN ZONES TDY. NOT MANY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ZONES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. WORK ZONES AWAY. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT 14Z LAMP DATA AND LATEST OBS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 930 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 ZONES...STRONG SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ESE THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. LATEST OBS INDICATE A 1041 MB CENTER NEAR FLORENCE. THE NEXT FEATURE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL FL COAST. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED CONSIDERING THE RETURN FLOW SITUATION AND IT MAY KEEP THE WINDS UP OVER THE AREA FROM ST. AUGUSTINE SWD THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COASTAL SC IS CURRENTLY ERODING AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT THINK THIS IS DUE TO THE MORNING COLD AIR DRAINAGE OVER THE NRN PEN. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER WRT TO SC ADVECTING OVER THE COASTLINE AFTER WE GET SOME DIURNAL HEATING...BUT AM NOT SURE IT WILL EXTEND TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. SUSPECT MOST SC WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PONTE VEDRA/ ST. AUGUSTINE SWD AND WILL PLAY ANY UPDATES THAT WAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE REGION. MARINE...FOR REASONS INDICATED ABOVE WILL KEEP AT SCEC GOING OVER THE SGJ-FLAGLER BCH LEG DUE TO WIND SPEEDS. BOTH RUC AND MESO-ETA ARE BRINGING DOWN THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE BALANCE OF THE MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE. NEXT QUESTION IS SEAS AND UNFORTUNATELY WE DID NOT GET A PROVIDENTIAL SHIP OB IN/NEAR THE IMMD COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SO ONLY HAVE THE SURROUNDING BUOYS TO WORK WITH. GRAYS REEF IS COMING IN WITH 4.6 FOOT SEAS...AND THE SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE'S R2 TOWER (JUST EAST OF GRAYS REEF) IS NEAR 4 FT. CANAVERAL WEST IS COMING IN WITH SEAS NEAR 10 FEET. THINK SEAS IN THE NRN LEG SHOULD BE DOWN TO 3-5 FT AND IN THE SRN LEG WITH HIGHER WINDS STILL IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THANKS FOR THE COORD KCHS/KMLB. .JAX... GA...FIRE WX WATCH TODAY. FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN EXCEPT FLAGLER COUNTY. FIRE WX WATCH THIS AFTN FLAGLER COUNTY. SANDRIK fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 315 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 OZFFWA AVBL. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME SIGN OF WEAKNESS IN NRN ATL BLOCK LATE IN PD LKLY GIVING GRTL INFLUX OF CAN AIR/DEEPER TROF WITH MONDAYS SYS. IN MEANTIME LONG WAVE TROFS OFF EACH COAST WITH FAST SHORT WAVE ACRS SCNTL CAN INTO GRTLKS OVRNGHT. MSAS 3HR PRES CHNG AND RUC SUGGESTING THAT ETA HAS BETTER HANDLE ON MN ARROWHEAD CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ELONGATED TROF INTO NE. WL GIVE NOD TO ETA. 75KT MID LVL SPEED MAX TO BRUSH NRTH OF FA OVERNIGHT. MSTR DEPTH NOT GREAT AND WL CONT WITH SML CHC TRACE EVENT...ALL LIQUID AS EVEN HILLSDALE MI TIME SECTIONS SHOW WARM WET BULB PROFILES. WITH LOW FURTHER NORTH WL LKLY SEE MORE WARM AIR INTO FA OVERNIGHT. WCNTL WI ALREADY TO 40F. WL INDICATE NEAR STEADY NORTH AND LOWS NEAR CURRENT VALUES RMNDR AS SOME ADDITIONAL LT AFT RISES EXPECTED. FROPA ACRS FA LT SUN MORNING. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE IN AFTN. FALLING TEMPS WITH 6-8C FALL IN 925 MB TEMPS THROUGHOUT DAY. BCMG CLDY AGAIN SUN NIGHT WITH HI 800-400 MB MSTR. MODELS CONT TO TREND COLDER ON MON. PCPN TYPE IN QUESTION FAR S AND MAY INDICATE CHC MIX. STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY DY5 FOR LES POTNL. .IWX...NONE PBM in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1009 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 WL UPDATE FOR MCLDY SKIES ENTIRE FA. GNRL MSTR INCRS IN WV SAT IMAGERY UPSTREAM. LTST RUC TIME SECTIONS SHOWING SIG MSTR H5-H3 REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CRNT TEMP FCSTS APPEAR ON LINE. .IWX...NONE PBM in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1130 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 ...CHANGE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS AFTERNOON... RATHER STRONG WARM FRONT OVER SRN PART OF LOWER MI WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AIR IS QUITE DRY BELOW 15000 FT AND MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THAT WILL NOT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LYRD AC AND THICK CS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TOWARD THINNING... THERE IS SO MUCH OUT THERE THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. SO WILL FCST CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS SINCE CLOUDS ARE MID AND HIGH TYPE. WILL LEAVE HIGH TEMP FCST MOSTLY AS IS SINCE TEMPS ONLY ROSE TO UPPER 20S SO FAR. THERE IS STRONG WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC WARMS 850 TO 4C BY 00Z OVER SW LWR FROM -2C NOW. COULD SEE NEAR 40 SRN CWA SO WILL INCREASE RANGE OVER SRN COUNTIES TO 35 TO 40 FOR AFTERNOON HIGH. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 308 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2000 COORD WITH YUL...MERCI! HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE ON OUT TO SEA TO OUR EAST TONITE...AS A DEVELOPING STORM SYS MOVES EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND INTO WESTERN QUE. THIS STORM TO TRACK ACRS SOUTHERN QUE EARLY ON SUN BEFORE IT RE-DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ME ON SUN EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BE WRAPPING UP PRETTY WELL AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA ON SUN NITE... AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HI PRESS BUILDS DOWN ACRS EAST-CENTRAL CANADA. A STRONG NWLY PRESS GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THIS HI AND THE EXITING LOW ON MON...USHERING IN COLDER AIR ACRS THE REGION. FIRST THE EASY PART...IT/S PLENTY COLD FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT TO BE ALL SN. LOOKS LIKE WE/LL FINALLY HAVE A WHITE GROUND HERE AT BTV. THE FIRST FEW HUNDRETHS OF THE 12Z ETA/AVN QPF SHOULDN/T ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND...BUT RATHER MOISTEN THE LOW LVLS INSTEAD. 12Z NGM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN START-TIME BEFORE MIDNITE ON THE NEW YORK SIDE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN VT. H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU 18Z SUN...MAXING OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND JUST AFTER 12Z SUN. THE STRONGEST UPR LVL DYNAMIX WILL BE TAKING PLACE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS WELL. PCPN WON/T BE QUICK TO TOTALLY SHUT OFF AFTER THE LOW GOES BY ON SUN NITE (ESPECIALLY IN NE VT) WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND NWLY FLOW STILL AROUND. NOTED DECENT H85 F-GEN TO TAKE PLACE IN NE VT OVRNITE ON SUN AS WELL. GOES-8 IR SAT PIX SHOW THICKER CLDS MOVING SE ACRS NEW YORK STATE ATTM. EXPECT CLDS TO THICKEN EARLY TONIGHT WITH SN TO BREAK OUT ACRS THE FA (FROM WEST TO EAST) LATER TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SN TO FALL DURING THE DAY ON SUN. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SRN VT...WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK. HOWEVER...SHSN TO CONTINUE IN THE MTNS INTO SUN NITE AND MON WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR THERE. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL BE A CHANGING CONSTANTLY WITH RISING TEMPS FROM LATER TONIGHT RIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT GOOD FLUFF-FACTOR EXPECTED INITIALLY. YUL WILL MOST LIKELY BE GOING WITH HIR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THEIR FORECAST...SINCE THEIR FA WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK. WE BOTH WILL BE WATCHING FOR SOME BIG-TIME WRAP-AROUND (IN THE EASTERN TOWNSHIPS OF QUE AND IN NE VT) INTO SUN NITE. LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE UNKNOWN (A.K.A. THE EXTENDED PERIOD)...BIG HI PRESS RIDGE BUILDING THRU THE FA ON TUE. A BIG OCEAN STORM SHOULD MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA TO THE SE ON WED...AS A WEAKER STORM MOVES DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. ON THU...AS THE BIG OCEAN STORM MOVES UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE SECOND STORM WILL BE SCOOTING OUT TO SEA TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG. CHC OF SN/SHSN LOOKS GOOD FOR THOSE TWO DAYS RIGHT NOW...MORE LIKE REAL WINTER. WORK ZONES ARE A MEMORY. FINAL ZFP AFTER A FEW TWEAKS AND A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP AND RUC DATA...AS WELL AS LATEST OBS TRENDS. .BTV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NYZ026>031- 034-035-VTZ001>010. MURRAY vt