AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1015 PM EST THU JAN 13 2000 UPDATE ISSUES DEAL WITH LES...MAINLY EAST AND THEN CLDS/TEMPS FOR REST OF ZONES. LATEST VOLUME SCANS OF MQT 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP INDICATE RAPIDLY WEAKENING LES BANDS OVR ALGER-LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. MAX RETURNS WITH BANDS WENT FM 24 DBZ TO ISOLD SPOTS OF 12-16 DBZ WITHIN PAST 2 HRS. INCREASED RDGG AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRINGING IN DRIER AIR FM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND EFFECTIVELY SQUASHING LES CONVECTION AS INVERSION HGTS LWRG TO 4 KFT AS PER MQT 88D VWP. VWP ALSO REVEALS MUCH MORE SHEARED NW FLOW WITHIN CBL IN PAST HR...NOT CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED LES BANDS. 00Z RUC CONTINUES TO FORECAST DIVERGENT...HIGHLY SHEARED AND WEAKENING CBL FLOW THRU OVRNGT. THUS...WL DOWNPLAY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS IN ERN COUNTIES OVRNGT TO INCH OR LESS...DESPITE LAKE DELTA-T LINGERING AROUND 19-20C OVR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IR SATL LOOP SHOWS LAKE CLDS BREAKING UP FM THE NW WITH INCREASED RDGG AND ASSOC DRIER AIR. RUC AND ETA MODEL SNDGS DO STILL SHOW SOME MSTR BLO 900 MB TO SUPPORT TRANSIENT LAKE CLD DVLPMT OVRNGT. WL GO WITH PCLDY SKIES WRN HALF ZONES WITH MCDLY IN THE EAST. PREV FCST TEMPS STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET WITH LOWS FM ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE WRN HALF UNDER PARTIAL CLRG AND LGT WNDS TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE IN EAST UNDER CLDS. .MQT...NONE. VOSS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 945 PM EST THU JAN 13 2000 FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WITH EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER/SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS HAS 1042 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK TROUGH WAS NOTED ACROSS NRN LWR MI. THIS TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DPVA/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH FORCING UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK TO OUR SW. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE NW ACROSS NRN LWR MI...WHICH HAS BROUGHT THE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. 00Z RUC AND 18Z MESO-ETA SIMILAR WITH 12Z RUNS IN ADVERTISING LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. KAPX 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED SHARP INVERSION AT 900 MB. HOWEVER...LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE MI FETCH INCREASES OVER FAVORED SNOWBELT REGIONS IN ERN UPR/NW LWR MI AS WINDS BACK NW AND WNW OVERNIGHT. (MODEL SOUNDINGS AS A RESULT SHOW INVERSIONS CLIMBING TO 850 MB...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAKENING A BIT). LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHECKLIST POINTS TO 3-6" 12 HR ACCUM RATES IN ERN UPR AND NW LWR MI SNOWBELTS...WITH LAKE-850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES AROUND 21C...INVERSIONS AROUND 4500 FT...AND (WITH THE WEAKER CAP) CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PENETRATING TO NEAR 6500 FT. SPOTTERS UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER BANDS THIS EVENING HAD NOTED LARGE SNOWFLAKE SIZE...LIKELY DUE TO THE -15C ISOTHERM WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER (WHICH IS OPTIMAL FOR SNOW DENDRITIC GROWTH). ONE LIMITATION...HOWEVER...IS THE LOW-LVL WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW TO WNW. THIS WILL PRECLUDE BANDS...ESPECIALLY THE LONG-AXIS DOMINATE BANDS...FROM REMAINING OVER ONE PLACE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST...WILL WORD AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IN ERN UPR MI SNOWBELTS WITH A NW/WNW FLOW. WILL ALSO INCLUDE 1-3 INCHES IN NW/WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS OF NW LWR MI WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. UPDATED FORECAST EXPECTED OUT BY 10 PM. .APX...NONE. HURLEY mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 920 AM EST THU JAN 13 2000 LATEST 88D TRENDS SHOW SNOW CONTINUING TO WANE AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ESSENTIALLY OVER... WILL DROP THE CURRENT HEADLINES. OTHERWISE... THE GOING ZONES LOOK OKAY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INFORMATION FROM THE RUC SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY DEPART FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... LEAVING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CBL ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR LES... WITH LAKE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES OF OVER 15C. HOWEVER... THE FLOW IS ESSENTIALLY NORTH UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT BACK MORE TO THE NNW. SO... WE SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN THE WAY OF LES CLOUDS OR SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST... AND EVEN THEN IT WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES SOME TO BETTER LINE UP WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND 06Z ETA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FORECAST OF STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGES OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST OBS SHOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHERN LOWER... WITH SUBZERO READINGS IN ONTARIO. NORTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING SOME OF THIS OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY... AT LEAST KEEPING TEMPS WHERE THEY ARE... AND MORE LIKELY CAUSING THEM TO FALL. TRH .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1145 AM EST THU JAN 13 2000 PRETTY MUCH BEEN UPDATING THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS RUC/ETA MODELS. AFTER TWO UPDATES THIS MORNING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE DOWN...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE RAISED FOR NORTH HALF OF NJ AND ALMOST ALL OF SE PA. STILL BELIEVE SECOND SHOT AT SNOW IS REAL POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY...AS LAGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS ACROSS PA. LATEST RUC STILL SUPPORTS UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTH PART OF FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE GONE WITH THAT. SOME FLURRIES MAY MAKE IT AS FAR DOWN AS PHL. THINK WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY ON THIS PACKAGE. THERE WILL BE NO DOUBT WINTER IS HERE BY THIS EVENING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH LEFT INTACT. MARINE FORECAST STILL HIGHLIGHTS GALE CONDITIONS AND LOOKS GOOD. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORIATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .PHI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069 GALE WARNING NJ AND DE COAST AND DELAWARE BAY SZATKOWSKI pa DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 845 PM CST THU JAN 13 2000 11-3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. LOOKS LIKE IT IS NOW ENTERING NORTHERN MATAGORDA COUNTY AS WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUST OUT FROM THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER VALLEY. THIS EXPLAINS THE NORTHERN WINDS IN MCALLEN WHILE THE EAST ZONES REMAIN IN A EAST OR SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND FIELD. BROKEN CLOUD DECKS IN THE 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SOME OF THESE ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN THE OBSERVATIONS AT HRL AND MFE. THIS SHOULD BE THE TREND TONIGHT AND ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG WE GET. ALTHOUGH WE COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...OUR EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS AN ABSENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WITH THE SOUNDING SO MOIST...WE SHOULD SEE MORE CLOUDS AS OPPOSED TO FOG. THE 01Z RUC SHOWS THE STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST BY 06Z. A MORNING PASSAGE HERE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER THE EAST ZONES. AND TONE DOWN THE FOG ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE THEY ALREADY HAVE CLOUDCOVER AND NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL ALSO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LATEST SWAPS AND NCEP WAVE MODELS SHOWS SEAS TO REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BRINGS IN SOME LARGER SWELLS. .VISIT US ON THE WEB..HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO .BRO...NONE. 69 tx SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 215 PM CST THU JAN 13 2000 TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH OVER NC KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SWING TO THE SW JUST WEST OF CWA. THIS TREND IS SLATED TO CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...UPSTAIRS...RUC ANALSYIS SHOWS 250 MBJET MAX ACROSS SDAK WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANOTHER SPEED MAX CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT APPEARS TO BE A MARKED INCREASE IN CIRRUS OVER SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. SO...AFTER TEMPS DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...A REBOUND SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS CIRRUS INCREASES AND SOUTH WINDS PICK UP. IN GENERAL IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH CIRRUS WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...BUT AGREE WITH OAX THAT THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD AS SUN ANGLE STILL LOW. HOWEVER ONE CANNOT DENY STRONG 850 MB WARMING INDICATED BY MODELS...AND GIVEN A DRY GROUND AND HISTORY OF WARM TEMPS THIS UHH...WINTER...AM INCLINED TO AT LEAST GO ABOVE FWC NUMBERS. IN A CLOUDLESS SKY...WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER NEAR RECORDS SUGGESTED BY FAN FOR SATURDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMEST DAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRUSH OF COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND SHORT WAVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING NOT GREAT IN THIS FLOW REGIME. .GID...NONE. DROZD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 555 PM PST THU JAN 13 2000 HAVE SENT OUT UPDATES FOR SOME NRN ZONES. RAIN HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AND UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SEEN ON RADARS OVER WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY. MESONET PRECIP GAGES SHOWING .05-.07 INCHES LAST HOUR IN WESTERN SHASTA COUNTY (ZONE 13). SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR APPROACHING OREGON ENHANCING RAINS ON THE NORTH COAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW COOLING TOPS OVER THE NRN SIERRA AND NORCAL. 12Z ETA AND LATEST RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH H7 MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION...HOWEVER AVN AND NGM SHOW GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. ALL MODELS...INCLUDING 18Z ETA...SHOW SIGNIFICANT H85 MOISTURE WITH STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT THRU THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF POWERFUL UPPER JET IS POSITION OVER FAR NORCAL. MODELS PROG 60KT WIND TO PERSIST AT H7 TONIGHT. SFC WINDS STILL CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AT THIS TIME WITH A 10MB MEDFORD TO SAC GRADIENT. THIS IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY 00Z SAT BUT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWEST. WILL VIEW 00Z RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THIS. .STO...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY THIS EVENING TARDY ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 930 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2000 SYNOPSIS: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL PROVIDE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH BITTER TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVER NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE AREA. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE AS RUC/ETA BLYR WIND FIELDS TO 30 KTS MIXING TO SURFACE WILL COMBINE WITH BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER EVALUATING AFTERNOON GUIDANCE MAY NEED TO EXTEND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES INTO EARLY TONIGHT. VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG NW FACING TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND MTN AREAS. DOWNEAST ONLY A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WITH STRONG CAA CONTINUING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. COASTAL WATERS: RUC/ETA BL WIND PROGS INDICATE NW GALES CONT THRU THIS EVE BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE SCA THESHOLDS LATER TNGT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON SAT AS SFC HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA. .CAR...WIND CHILL WARNING ZNS 1>6/10/11 THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZNS 15>17/29/30 THIS AFTERNOON. GLW. FITZSIMMONS me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1000 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST RUC MODEL...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS IS ON THE CHANCE OF SNOW OVER OUR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA THAT GENERATES GOOD 850 MB TO 700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED HOWEVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS HINTS THAT DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...REFLECTED IN THE DEW POINTS...IS FEEDING INTO THE AREAS WERE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AND WHERE RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY PAINTED ON THE RADAR DISPLAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND MENTION OF UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW SHOULD BE A GOOD CALL. .MSP...NONE WH mn SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 930 AM MST FRI JAN 14 2000 ...UPDATES PLANNED FOR ZONES AND STATE... ARCTIC FRONT AT 15Z EXTENDED FROM N OF HLN TO BIL AREA. FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE DAY. RADAR INDICATING SNOW OVER THE NW MOUNTAINS. RADAR ALSO SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR NRN ZONES. LIGHT OVERUNNING SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE N. WILL BEEF UP POPS AT CTB INTO LIKELY CATEGORY BUT WILL INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. ETA AND RUC HAVE VORTICITY CENTER OVER THIS AREA AT 00Z. CENTER APPEARS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SO HARD TO PICK OUT WHERE IT IS AS OF 16Z ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT SOME SNOW OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN THE ZONES. WILL DROP POP AT BZN TONIGHT TO AGREE WITH WORDING IN FORECAST. WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF NW WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AS AREA IS NOW IN ARCTIC AIRMASS. WILL LOWER FORECAST HIGHS AT LWT AND GTF. IN THE S STATIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS APPROACHING 50 DEGREES BUT WILL NOT GO THAT HIGH DUE TO CLOUD COVER. LATEST NGM INDICATES ARCTIC AIR RETREATING TONIGHT BUT I DONT BUY THAT. BLANK GTF 422 HLN 222 HVR 432 mt TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 UPDATES ZNS TO INCREASE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN ZNS. MESONET/LATEST SFC DATA SUGGESTING WINDS ALREADY OVER FCSTD RANGE ACROSS OK PNHDL. STRONG LLVL GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN 1045 HIGH OVER WRN TN AND LEE TROUGH IN CO. SFC-H8 GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 15Z RUC SHOWING SOME TAPERING OF WINDS ACROSS FAR WRN ZNS BY 21Z AS HIGH MOVES E. SATL VIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATING THICKER CLOUDS STREAMING E ACROSS NRN ZNS...WITH THINNER VARIETY IN S. ANY AFFECTS ON TEMPS SHOULD BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1015 AM MST FRI JAN 14 2000 AM GOING TO HAVE TO UPDATE WINDS AND TEMPS FOR TODAY. A PIECE OF THE LEE TROF HAS BROKE OFF AS A RESULT OF WEAK S/W MOVG THRU ATTM. MAIN LEE TROF TO REMAIN ALONG FRONT RANGE AS A RESULT OF ZONAL FLOW. WEAK SFC TROF WASHES OUT OR MOVES EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. RUC/MESOETA CATCH THIS WELL AND MATCH WITH NEW ETA/AVN. AREA PROFILERS SHOW BTWN 10 AND 20 KTS IN LOW LEVELS AND THIS ALSO MATCHES WELL WITH NEW MODEL DATA. BLV HIGHEST WINDS AND TIGHTEST GRADIENT WL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWFA. THEREFORE WL TAKE SPEEDS DOWN TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME SHIFT BACK TWD THE SOUTH. DENSE CI SHIELD OVR CWFA ATTM WITH SOME WARMING OF TOPS OVR US. HWVR CLD TOPS COOLG OR REMAINING THE SAME JUST TO WEST OF AREA. BASED ON LESS DOWNSLOPE SFC WNDS THAN PREV EXPECTED AND CI STAYING RATHER DNS THROUGH REST OF THE DAY...WL KNOCK MAX TEMPS DOWN ABT 5 DEGREES. .GLD...NONE. BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 PM CST FRI JAN 14 2000 FCST FOCUS ON SNW CHCS...WNDS..AND TEMPS TONGT. IN THE SHORT TERM...IMPRESSIVE BAND OF WAA CLDS/LITE SNOW CONTS EWD ACRS FAR ERN CWA. ETA/NGM BOTH PUSH MID LVL RH OUT OF CWA BY 00Z WHILE RUC/AVN HOLD 70+ RH BACK A BIT. BUT ALL PROGS TAKE CORE OF UVV/RH TO LWR MICH BY 06Z. DUE TO SWIFT MOVMENT OF WAA PCPN WILL TAKE PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR THIS EVE AND COVER LINGERING FLURYS WITH NOWCAST. LARGE CORE OF 7 MB 3HRLY PRES FALLS OVR ERN IA MVG EWD SIGNALS A WINDY NITE FOR THE CWA. H8 PROGS BRING A 40-50KT CORE OF SW WINDS INTO SRN WISC BY 00Z. PROGS ALSO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT H8 WAA OVERNITE. FWC WND GUID UNDERDONE...SO WILL DISREGARD. TEMPS OVR CWA SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FOR EVE HRS...THEN RISE LATER ON. SNOWCOVER OVR RGN NOT TO BE A FACTOR AS WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNITE. IN THE FAR TERM...PROGS TAKE UPPER JET NWD INTO LK SUP RGN WITH TIME. WITH LACK OF ANY H5 VORTS IN W-NW FLOW WX OVR CWA...WX TO BE NIL. MINOR SPOKE OF MID LVL UVV SWINGS ACRS AREA SAT...BUT VERY DRY MID LVL RH WILL JUST PRODUCE A FEW CLDS AND NO PCPN. ARRIVAL OF DRY BUT SHALLOW COLD FNT SAT NITE TO BE UNEVENTFUL AS MID/UPPR LVL FEATURES REMAIN FROM THE W-NW AND BULK OF COLD AIR STAYS OVR NRN WISC. SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE SNOW EVENT SUN AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH SLIDES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...AVN H8 TEMP PROG SHOWS DELTA T NOT QUITE FAVORABLE ENUF FOR MENTN OF LK SNOW AT THIS TIME AND PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT OF WX SYSTEMS PREVENTING DEEP PLUNGE OF COLD AIR. .UWNMS...VERY SIMILAR TO OTHR MODELS...ESPECIALLY WITH RETARDING INVASION OF COLD AIR IN LATR FCST PDS. .MKX...NONE. 0.../.../...0 ZAJDEL wi