AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 542 PM CST WED JAN 12 2000 SFC OBS AND MPX AND OTHER REGIONAL 88D'S ALONG WITH H20 VAPOR LOOP SHOWING 2ND VORT MAX JUST NORTH OF FSD CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. IN SE SD IN SW MN. EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY ALONG WITH 21Z RUC INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG IA/MN BORDER AND WILL AMEND ZFP TO SAY SUCH. LESS THAN INCH WORDING UP THERE. ZFP OUT BY 6 PM. .DSM...NONE SEARCY ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 700 AM MST WED JAN 12 2000 LATEST MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO KHLC AND KIML. THIS WINDSHIFT IS FASTER THAN THE MODELS INDICATED. LATEST RUC/RUCII INDICATES NORTHWEST WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RED WILLOW PROFILER CURRENTLY INDICATING 850 WINDS OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WAS WELL UNDERDONE BY ALL THE MODELS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA...THEREFORE UPPED WINDS TO BREEZY CATEGORY AND REMOVED MENTION OF SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH FOR TODAY PERIOD. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. .GLD...NONE. THEDE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 852 PM CST WED JAN 12 2000 EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN AR TO BETWEEN DFW AND MWL TO SOUTH OF ABI. FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST HAS IT PROGGED. CURRENT POSITION FITS THE LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE IT FROM MEM TO TXK TO ACT BY 09Z AND FROM SOUTHEAST AR TO NEAR SHV TO AUS BY 12Z. LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA THIS EVENING...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS...SLOW DOWN WIND SHIFT WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF...SO WILL REMOVE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN AR. SO WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS AND ADD POPS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AR AND LA...AND SOUTHEAST OK AND A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST TX...WHERE A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT. .SHV...NONE. IV la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 800 PM CST WED JAN 12 2000 OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY CLEAR. STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING S TO SW FLOW FROM GULF BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NW ARKANSAS. LATEST RUC INDICATES INCREASING LIFT ON 295K SURFACE OVERNIGHT WITH BEST MOISTURE OVER NRN MS WHERE BETTER LIFT WITH FRONT EXISTS. OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK BUT WILL CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUD TREND. WILL ALSO REMOVE FOG IN NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT VERSUS FOG. TEMPERATURES A CHALLENGE AS DECOUPLING OVER EAST CENTRAL MS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY APPROACH FORECAST MINS. CONVERSELY...STG SLY FLOW OVER WRN ZONES IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 THERE. FRONT APPEARS A BIT SLOW AND LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT FROPA WILL LIKELY NOT REACH WRN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z. HENCE WILL LIKELY BUMP TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS UP A CATEGORY OR TWO. .JAN... MS...NONE. AR...NONE. LA...NONE. 08 ms WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 930 AM MST WED JAN 12 2000 WESTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL ID STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. SOME CONCERN ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ALONG 135W TAPPING POWERFUL JET STREAM AND COLD AIR ALOFT THIS MORNING. NEW MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH SIGNIFICANCE WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH PRIOR NGM/MESOETA AND RUC INDICATE A WAVE AND HIGHER RH ACROSS NORTHERN ID/NORTHWEST MT LATER TONIGHT. ETA SHOWS A 150KT JET CORE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OR BY 12Z WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING MAINLY FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR INCLUSION IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE. STRONGER SHORTWAVE WEST OF 150W APPROACHES COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER WAA AND JET DYNAMICS MAY BRING HEAVY SNOWS FOR NORTHWEST MT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONSIDER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS AREA. NO UPDATES TO MORNING ZONES. BOLDT mt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1038 AM CST WED JAN 12 2000 THE RUC...ETA AND NGM ALL SHOW 50H S/W ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEY ALSO SHOW WAA THROUGH 70H. THE SATELLITE...SFC OBS... AND THE ABR RADAR SHOW EVIDENCE OF THE LIFT THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING ENHANCEMENTS IN THE CLOUDS...INCREASING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF ECHOES ACROSS NW AND NC SD ALONG WITH MANY OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING...DEPOSITING ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM MBG TO ABR TO SIS TO ETH. WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY RISE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE COLD AIR WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE PIERRE AREA AND SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME SUNSHINE AND SFC WAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE MANY CHANGES. .ABR...NONE MOHR sd TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1206 PM CST WED JAN 12 2000 UPDATED ZNS TO ADJUST WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION. CURRENT OBS SUGGEST SFC RIDGE BUILDING SWRD QUICKLY ACROSS FA BEHIND EXITING SFC TROUGH. THIS IS BRINGING WINDS MORE NRLY WITH TIME. 15Z RUC BACKS THIS UP WITH N/NE WINDS ACROSS ALL OF FA BY 21Z THEN VEERING TO MORE E/SE DIRECTION THIS EVE. ALSO CONCERNED WITH TEMPS...MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS MAY GET TAPPED AND DRAWN SWRD BUT THAT A LATER CONCERN. IN MEAN TIME...TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF 50S ACROSS SW KS AND ERN OK PNHDL THIS MORNING SO ALSO TRIMMED HIGHS BACK SOME THERE. .AMA... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. COBB tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1058 AM CST WED JAN 12 2000 WIND SPEEDS ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. TUCUMCARI PROFILER SHOWS 50 KNOT WESTERLY WIND RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE WHILE JAYTON SHOWS 30 KNOTS. RUC/MESOETA MODELS SHOW 70H GRADIENT TIGHT THIS MORNING BUT RELAXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS BUMP THE TEMPERATURES UP A CATEGORY. EXPECT TO SEE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT LUBBOCK TODAY. .LBB...NONE. TINSLEY tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 938 PM EST WED JAN 12 2000 WK RIDGE OF HI PRESS TO MOVE THRU THE FA OVRNITE TONITE...AS A STORM SYS TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALL MODELS RATHER CLOSE ON THE 00Z THU POSN OF THIS STORM...WHICH WAS ALONG THE MS RIVER VLY. THIS STORM TO QUICKLY SCOOT ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ON OUT TO SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENG...THRU 00Z FRI. GOES-8 IR SAT PIX INDICATE THICKER CLDS MOVING IN ACRS WESTERN NY STATE...WITH SFC OBS INDICATING SN BREAKING OUT ACRS EXTREME SOUTHERN ONT ATTM. FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LOTS OF LOW-LVL CLDS ACRS THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VT. THESE CLDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP A TAD FROM WHERE THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED TO GO TONIGHT. 21Z RUC WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS STORM THRU 09Z THU THAN THE 12Z ETA/NGM/AVN. RUC HAS SFC LOW MOVING ACRS OH AND INTO WESTERN PA BY 09Z...WHILE THE H5 VORT LOBE MOVES ACRS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LKS REGION. LT MEASURABLE PCPN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NY STATE BETWEEN 03- 06Z THU. WINDS FORECAST BY THE RUC TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN THE ST LAW VLY OVRNITE AS WELL. H5 VORT LOBE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON THU...WITH JUST AN UPR TROF TO PASS ON BY THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACRS THE FA BY 00Z FRI. H85 WAA ALSO CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA ON THU...WITH MOST OF THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH ACRS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN VT. THERE/LL BE A FINE LINE BETWEEN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PCPN AND OTHER AREAS THAT REMAIN TOTALLY DRY ON THU. HOWEVER...ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL SHOULD TEND TO PILE UP EASILY AS TEMPS ON THU WILL BE RATHER COLD...YIELDING HI SNOWFALL TO LIQUID RATIOS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PCPN HERE AT BTV THOUGH. THE STORM AND MOST OF THE UPR LVL FORCING APPEAR TO BE TRAVELING JUST TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. HAVE JUST MENTIONED A CHC OF FLURRIES IN THE ADIRONDACKS OVRNITE AND DROPPED CHC POPS A TAD WHERE I COULD FOR THU. ALSO EMPHASIZED "MEASURABLE SNOW" IN THE ZFP. TEMPS NOT GOING ANYWHERE...AGAIN...ON THU AS WELL. OTHER CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST LARGELY COSMETIC. WILL LET MID-SHIFT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ZONES. WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP TO FOLLOW AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST WIND/TEMP TRENDS. .BTV...NONE. MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 900 PM CST WED JAN 12 2000 HEAVY SNOW BAND BASICALLY HAS NOT MOVED SINCE LATE AFTN. MAX SNOWFALLS UNDER THE BAND RUNNING IN THE 7-9 INCH RANGE. THIS IS TOUGH TO DEAL WITH IN THE FCST PRODUCTS BECAUSE OF THE NARROW NATURE OF THE BAND. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SIG VORT MOVG TOWARD S WI...WITH A NICELY FORMED COMMA HEAD MOVG E INTO THE WARNING AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL REPORTS OF +SN NEAR MSP WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW BAND OVER OUR FCST AREA HAS STARTED TO EXPAND...PROBABLY AS A RESULT OF THE FORCING WITH THIS VORT NEARING THE AREA. EXPECT SIG SNOWS TO CONT AS THE UPR VORT MVS ACRS THE RGN. WL CONT WARNING AND ADVISORY AS ISSUED EARLIER. RUC INDICATES THAT PCPN WL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TNGT...SO MAY MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FCST TO REFLECT THAT FACT. ALSO...NEED TO CONSIDER COLD AIR STREAMING ACRS LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TNGT. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE WINDS FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN ERN WI. KMQT AND KDLH WSR-88DS SHOW LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS MOVG ON SHORE IN THOSE AREAS NOW...SO SOME LAKE-EFFECT IN ERN WI IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TNGT. .GRB...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT WIZ035>040-045-048>050- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT WIZ021-030-031- SKOWRONSKI/RDM WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 830 PM CST WED JAN 12 2000 PROBLEM ALL EVENING HAS BEEN EAST-WEST ORIENTATED HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND LINES UP WELL IN AREA OF 500-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS...WITH RISING MOTION ON WARM SIDE OF FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMUM AND COLD SIDE OF FRONTOLYSIS MAXIMUM. FORCING IS MORE MID-LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND SOME COUPLED JET DYNAMICS... NO SURPRISE WHY THIS WAS NEARLY STEADY-STATE SINCE LATE AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS AND LATEST RUC SUGGEST BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MENTIONED EARLIER WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST BY 06Z SO WOULD EXPECT EASTWARD DRIFT TO CONTINUE AND SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 08Z. THIS MAKES DECIDING WHEN TO DROP ADVISORIES/WARNING MORE DIFFICULT FOR 10PM WEATHERCASTS. BASED ON WSR-88D TRENDS...WILL HAVE TO HOLD ON TO CURRENT HEADLINES UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXAMINE SITUATION. PLAN ON UPDATING ZONE FORECASTS TO FRESHEN SNOW WORDING AND ENTER TREND OF DISSIPATING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. .LSE...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT IN CLARK COUNTY....WIZ029 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY...WIZ017 AND BUFFALO...TREMPEALEAU...JACKSON COUNTIES...WIZ032-033-034 SHEA wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 845 PM PST WED JAN 12 2000 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH A MEAN TROF OVER 135W. IN THE SHORT TERM SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER NORCAL. 88D SHOWS INCREASED RETURNS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST AT THIS TIME WITH RETURNS OVER THE NRN SIERRA. THE RIDGING SEEN OVER SOCAL IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER 145W. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. WAA PATTERN HAS ONLY RESULTED IN MID CLOUD DECK AND VIRGA OVER OUR CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE SIERRA. LIGHT SNOW REPORTED AT MT SHASTA CITY AT 3500 FT. AS THE RIDGING LIFTS THE ENHANCED CLOUDS NORTHWARD TONIGHT SOME FOG MAY FORM IN THE SJ VALLEY AND POSSIBLY SAC AREA LATE. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WITH POPS AND CLOUDS. LATEST RUC RUN SHOWS AN INCREASE IN H7 MOISTURE THRU 12Z FROM OROVILLE NORTHWARD WITH DRYING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS. 00Z MDLS SHOW A WEAK SHORT THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SW H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 50KNTS TONIGHT AND 65KTS BY 00Z FRIDAY...SO OROGRAPHICS WILL BE STRONG BUT DEEP MOISTURE MAINLY CONFINED NORTH OF OUR CWA. WIND MAY BE MORE OF A PROBLEM THAN PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE H2 RR QUAD...DECENT UPWARD MOTION AND ONSHORE WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW WILL LEAVE ADVISORY FOR SHASTA COUNTY...THOUGH BEST H7-5 QVEC REMAIN TO THE NORTH OR OFFSHORE. DESPITE EXCELLENT UPSLOPE IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...THOUGH AN INCH OR SO IN WESTERN PLUMAS IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OR FORCING TO WARRANT MENTION OF RAIN. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE TONIGHT UP NORTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE CAPTURING SIGNFICANT H3 MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER CAL BY 00Z FRIDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICS. OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION THREAT LOOKS ALMOST NIL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA THRU THE WEEK. CHANGES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AS 1 INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER TAPS INTO A RATHER STRONG SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH A 130+KT UPPER JET MAX POISED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CAL. LONG RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO OUR CWA BY SATURDAY AND IT WILL TAPERING IN THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY. SURFACE PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS STORM...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW. RIDGING OCCURS ON MONDAY AS EXTENDED PROGS ALL SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER 135W. AHEAD OF THIS NOGAPS AND MRF SHOW A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION FORMING DRAWING MOISTURE INTO SOCAL AND NORCAL BY TUESDAY. WITH H5 HEIGHTS OF 570DM SNOW LEVELS WOULD RISE TO 7000FT OR SOMEWHAT HIGHER. .STO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 4500 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY...BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY...MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. TARDY ca AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 305 AM CST THU JAN 13 2000 06Z SFC AND LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING OCCLUDED SFC LOW PUSHING ACRS EAST CENTRAL IN. SFC PRESSURE RISES APLENTY BEHIND IT ACRS EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND MUCH OF IA AND MO. CANADIAN HIGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC AIR POISED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WEST MN...WAITING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW ACRS IA...INDICATING THIS PROCESS ALREADY UNDERWAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DEALING WITH ADJACENT AND UPSTREAM STRATUS DECKS...AND TEMPS IN CAA REGIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN EVOLVING OUT OF ZONAL UPPER FLOW... TO A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THROUGH 12Z FRI...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS...AND L/W TROUGH DIGGING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. 00Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATED BUILDING HEIGHT RISES AT THE H5-H3 LEVELS ACRS THE WEST COAST...INDICATING AMPLIFICATION PROCESS UNDERWAY. AS A RESULT...COLDER NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO BUILD ACRS THE MIDWEST TODAY...BRINGING IN COLDER WX THROUGH FRI. DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE THEN TO SHIFT EAST ACRS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...MODERATING TEMPS. IN DEALING WITH STRATUS DECKS...IR FOG LOOP SHOWING "BLACK" LOW LEVEL ST DECK OVER NORTHERN IL AND FAR EAST IA...WITH UPSTREAM DECK ACRS EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHWEST MN. ADJACENT DECK OVER PORTIONS OF DVN CWA LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME REGENERATION NOTED OVER FAR EAST IA WHERE IT WAS FALLING APART BEFORE. MESOETA AND ETA 80-90 H85 RH FIELDS HANDLING THESE DECKS JUST OKAY AT 06Z...AND KEEP NORTHEAST 2/3S OF CWA INUNDATED THROUGH NOON BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER WEST CENTRAL IL MAY BE TRICKIER TO WORD. ETA SWINGS UPSTREAM DECK ACRS NORTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT ONLY A LESSER EXTENT OF RH AT H85...50-60 PERCENT. EXTRAPOLATING "DAKOTAS DECK" SOUTHEAST ALONG LATEST RUC H7-H3 THICKNESS FIELDS...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. FEEL UP COMING INSOLATION AND MIXING WILL EAT AT BOTH DECKS WITH UPSTREAM DECK COMING THROUGH BROKEN...AND DECK OVER EAST CWA ATTM MAY BE FASTER TO MOVE EAST THAN PROGGED. WILL WATCH TRENDS AT ISSUANCE TIME FOR TRICKY WORDING AND ZONE GROUPING. CLEARING TO BUILD ACRS ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. COLD CANADIAN HIGH TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...WITH STRONG CAA AT THE SFC THOUGH H85. FWC AND FAN/ESPECIALLY THE FWC/ GETTING A HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC AIR INFLUX AND ASSOCIATED CAA ACRS THE AREA...WHERE YESTERDAY THEY DIDN/T HAVE A CLUE. SFC TRAJECTORIES OUT OF WEST CENTRAL MN SOURCE REGION...EVEN WITH MODIFICATION...SUGGEST COOLER FWC VALUES MORE ON TRACK FOR HIGHS TODAY AND CHILLY LOWS TONIGHT. AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACRS THE SOUTHEAST U.S...BRISK SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW REGIME TO SET UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD. BRISKLY BACKING FLOW AT H85-H7 BY FRI AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA...BUT FEEL SHALLOW COLD POOL AT SFC LINGERING SOMEWHAT AND MAY BE SLOWER TO RETREAT THAN MODELS SUGGEST. WILL LEAN TO COLDER FWC VALUES FOR FRI HIGHS. SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW TO KICK IN LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT THOUGH. BACKING FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS/WAA ALSO MAY INDUCE AC DECK BY FRI AFTERNOON. STRONG H85-H5 CONVERGENT QG FORCING AND POS OMEGAS TO 5 MICROBARS/SEC BY 00Z SAT ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTIONS TO SUPPORT AC DECK. WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AC...FEEL TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF MUCH/STEADY OR SLOW RISE/ FRI NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FWC TREND. FOR NOW...WON/T DWELL ON MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON HANDLING NEXT SFC LOW FEATURE THAT WILL SKIRT ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WEST GRT LKS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AVN AND ETA DO HINT AT LIGHT PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. QUICK LOOK AT EXTENDED...MRF CONSISTENT WITH HIGHER POPS ON MON... AND EVEN HIGHER THIS RUN AND FEEL UNEASY WITH ONGOING DRY WORDING WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE TO MON. COORDINATED WITH ILX...THANX. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. JDH il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1055 PM EST WED JAN 12 2000 QUITE A FEW CHGS TO JUST ISSUED ZONES...BUT NONE OF HUGE SIGNIFICANCE. MAJOR CONCERNS WERE PCPN AMTN IN CNTRL YOOP AND TEMPS THRU OUT. MAIN BAND OF SNOW RMNS WELL TO THE S OF THE MQT FA AS RESPONSIBLE S/WV CUTS THRU LWR LAKES AND SFC LOW REFLECTION CUTS THRU OHIO VALLEY. FIRST THE LES...DISORGANIZED AREA OF -SHSN CONTS TO SHOW BOLDEST RETURNS ACRS ALTER AND MQT CNTYS W/ ISOLD AREAS OF 28+ DBZ RETURNS. KMQT RECEIVED 0.8 OF AN INCH OF NEW SNOW BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM. DID NOT TAKE WATER EQUIV AT THAT TIME (WL DO SO AT MIDNIGHT) BUT IT/S BASICALLY FLUFF... PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF 30 OR 40 TO 1. THIS IS LIKELY A COMBO EVENT...W/ SOME WEAK Q/VEC FORCG NOTED IN THE MID LVLS ASSOC W/ THE S/WV PASSING TO THE S...AND WEAKER WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACRS MN AND IN H5 PLOT. AS FOR THE LAKE COMPONENT... 00Z ETA DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE LOW LVL CNVRGNC (PER THE LAPS WIND FIELD) AND LOW LVL INSTBY WELL AT THE OUTSET...SO AM RELYING MORE ON 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC RUN TO EVALUATE SITN. 18Z ETA IN PARTICULAR CONCENTRATES H95 CONVERGENCE ACRS MQT CNTY DURG THE OVNT PD...RUC NOT AS STG AND MORE BROAD W/ IT/S CONVERVGENCE. 18Z ETA BUFKIT SHOWS INVERSION TO RMN AOB 3K FEET. TEMP AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION (AT ABT 870 MB ON AVERAGE) AT MQT BUFKIT POINT IS MINUS 14-15 TNT... GIVING LOW LVL DELTA T OF 17 TO 18. ENUF TO KEEP SHSN GOING THRU THE NGT...THO DO XPCT SOME DCRS IN INTENSITY TWD MORG AS WNDS BEGIN TO BACK AND BCM SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC. GIVEN AMT OF SNOW SO FAR AND RATE...SPOTS IN MQT CNTY APRCHG 3 INCHES ADTNL ACCUM IN MQT CNTY TNT DO NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE...THO MOST PLACES WL SEE LESS. IN BARAGA...-SHSN SLOW TO START...SO AN INCH OR TWO...IN ALGER TERRAIN NOT AS MUCH OF A HELP SO 1 TO 2 INCHES THERE AS WELL. CUT -SHSN IN NWRN CNTYS TO WIDLY SCTD AND OVR HIER TERRAIN. TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF GOG CNTY W/ UNFVRBL NE FLOW AND CLDS WHICH ARE MAINLY HIGH. TEMPS NEEDED FRESHENING ALG THE LAKE SUP SHORE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO FAR. TWEAKED WNDS TO MATCH CRNT CONDITIONS AND FCST SFC WNDS AS WELL. .MQT...NONE. DESROSIERS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 830 PM EST WED JAN 12 2000 ...WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES TONIGHT... LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER MOST OF OCEANA AND MASON COUNTIES. LOOPS OF RADAR MOSAIC AND VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREA OF SNOW IS GROWING IS SIZE AND INTENSITY. 12 ETA/18Z ETA/ALL RUC MODELS FROM 18Z THROUGH 23Z/NGM/AVN SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THAT AREA WILL BE FROM 03Z TO AROUND 09Z. SINCE THEY ALREADY HAVE 3 TO 5 INCHES... 5 TO 7 SHOULD BE EASY TO GET. THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE... THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY. SFC DWPTS RISING RAPIDLY INTO THE 50S OVER SRN IL/IN/OH AND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING RADAR IMAGES... WILL ONLY BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE SNOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PART OF THE CWA. ALL MODELS SHOW MEAN RH FROM 1000 TO 850 BELOW 50 PERCENT AT 00Z BUT INCREASE IT TO NEAR 80 PCT BY 06Z...MOST OF THAT AFTER 03Z. SO IT IS BY MIDNIGHT SNOW WILL START FALLING OVER SRN PART OF CWA. AT THAT POINT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LET UP OVER NRN PART OF CWA. SO WILL NOT HAVE WARNING FOR COUNTIES EAST OF MASON AND OCEANA. SNOW ADVISORY FOR REST OF CWA AS FORECAST AT 4 PM LOOKS GOOD. THERE IS A RISK IT COULD SNOW HARD ENOUGH OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CWA TO GET 6 INCHES IN 12HRS... BUT RISK NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT A WARNING OUT AT THIS POINT. .GRR...WINTER STORM WARNING MASON AND OCEANA COUNTY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW ADVISORY NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WDM mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 120 PM WED JAN 12 2000 WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL TRIES TO INCREASE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDFLOW AND BRING ENOUGH WAA INTO THE STATE TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 70S. 0819Z ACARS SOUNDING FOR CAE ALSO GIVES THE LOWER 70S. HOWEVER...CURRENT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND MESOETA KEEPS WIND FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH MODEL SHIFTS WINDS INTO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. BELIEVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW THE 70 DEGREE MARK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE FORECAST HIGHS AND WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .CAE...NONE TTH sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 230 AM CST THU JAN 13 2000 SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAS WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR PBF TO CRS. IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF AS WE OBSERVED STATIONS IN E TX SWITCH TO A NW WIND AND BACK TO SW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO SHOWING UP AS A FINE LINE... PERHAPS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES...ON THE 88D CURRENTLY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING...ALL TAKE THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE 06Z RUN OF THE RUC IS GENERATING A FEW HUNDRETHS OF QPF SO WE MAY INCLUDE 20 POPS FOR THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE PUSHED VERY FAR S AS THE SFC HIGH COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EWD BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN INTO CENTRAL TX WHICH WILL SIMPLY MEAN THAT LOW ST AND FG WILL BE QUICK IN COMING BACK TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE TEMPS DID NOT DO TOO BAD YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR BEING A BIT TOO COOL AT LFK. WE HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE FAN AND FWC THIS MORNING...AND WHO AM I TO ARGUE? 05 PRELIMS... SHV 68/36/59/39 1000 MLU 67/34/57/37 2000 TXK 65/33/58/39 0000 TYR 66/34/60/42 0000 LFK 73/34/62/38 1000 .SHV...NONE. la AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1145 AM EST THU JAN 13 2000 PRETTY MUCH BEEN UPDATING THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS RUC/ETA MODELS. AFTER TWO UPDATES THIS MORNING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE DOWN...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE RAISED FOR NORTH HALF OF NJ AND ALMOST ALL OF SE PA. STILL BELIEVE SECOND SHOT AT SNOW IS REAL POSSIBILITY LATER TODAY...AS LAGGING UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS ACROSS PA. LATEST RUC STILL SUPPORTS UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTH PART OF FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE GONE WITH THAT. SOME FLURRIES MAY MAKE IT AS FAR DOWN AS PHL. THINK WIND AND COLD TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG STORY OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY ON THIS PACKAGE. THERE WILL BE NO DOUBT WINTER IS HERE BY THIS EVENING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST PRETTY MUCH LEFT INTACT. MARINE FORECAST STILL HIGHLIGHTS GALE CONDITIONS AND LOOKS GOOD. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORIATE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .PHI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069 GALE WARNING NJ AND DE COAST AND DELAWARE BAY SZATKOWSKI pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 920 AM EST THU JAN 13 2000 LATEST 88D TRENDS SHOW SNOW CONTINUING TO WANE AS IT SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. WITH THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ESSENTIALLY OVER... WILL DROP THE CURRENT HEADLINES. OTHERWISE... THE GOING ZONES LOOK OKAY. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INFORMATION FROM THE RUC SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY DEPART FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... LEAVING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CBL ARE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR LES... WITH LAKE-850MB DELTA-T VALUES OF OVER 15C. HOWEVER... THE FLOW IS ESSENTIALLY NORTH UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON... WHEN IT BACK MORE TO THE NNW. SO... WE SHOULDN/T HAVE TOO MUCH TO WORRY ABOUT IN THE WAY OF LES CLOUDS OR SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST... AND EVEN THEN IT WOULD ONLY AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES SOME TO BETTER LINE UP WITH UPSTREAM TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC AND 06Z ETA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FORECAST OF STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA... WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGES OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST OBS SHOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER NORTHERN LOWER... WITH SUBZERO READINGS IN ONTARIO. NORTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING SOME OF THIS OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY... AT LEAST KEEPING TEMPS WHERE THEY ARE... AND MORE LIKELY CAUSING THEM TO FALL. TRH .GRR...NONE. mi SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 215 PM CST THU JAN 13 2000 TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH OVER NC KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SWING TO THE SW JUST WEST OF CWA. THIS TREND IS SLATED TO CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...UPSTAIRS...RUC ANALSYIS SHOWS 250 MBJET MAX ACROSS SDAK WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANOTHER SPEED MAX CROSSING THE ROCKIES. THE RESULT APPEARS TO BE A MARKED INCREASE IN CIRRUS OVER SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. SO...AFTER TEMPS DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...A REBOUND SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS CIRRUS INCREASES AND SOUTH WINDS PICK UP. IN GENERAL IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW MUCH CIRRUS WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA IN A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...BUT AGREE WITH OAX THAT THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD AS SUN ANGLE STILL LOW. HOWEVER ONE CANNOT DENY STRONG 850 MB WARMING INDICATED BY MODELS...AND GIVEN A DRY GROUND AND HISTORY OF WARM TEMPS THIS UHH...WINTER...AM INCLINED TO AT LEAST GO ABOVE FWC NUMBERS. IN A CLOUDLESS SKY...WOULD HAVE TO CONSIDER NEAR RECORDS SUGGESTED BY FAN FOR SATURDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMEST DAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRUSH OF COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND SHORT WAVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF TIMING NOT GREAT IN THIS FLOW REGIME. .GID...NONE. DROZD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1015 AM EST THU JAN 13 2000 THE BAND OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD RAPIDLY AND BASED ON SATELLITE MOVEMENT AND RUC SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM WEST OF EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS WINDS OF 30 KT AT 1000 FT AND THIS SUPPORTS THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. .CAE...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CWA RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...UPDATED... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 715 AM CST THU JAN 13 2000 MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PRBOLEM IS LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WITH NE BNDRY LAYER WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXITING SHORTWV NOW BRINGING DOWNWARD MOTION BHND SHRTWV. SKIES HAVE RAPIDLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF SE/SC WI. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -12 C JUST N OF MKE BY 12Z 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -13 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SHORE AREA BY 18Z...BUT BY THIS TIME WINDS BECOME NNW. LAKE WATER TEMP OF ARND 1C. THIS PUTS LAKE AMOUNTS FROM DECISION TREE AT 1 TO 3 INCHES. BUFKIT SHOWS LAKE INTERACTION INCREASES CAPE FROM ZERO TO 160 J/KG...WITH AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL JUST ABOVE 7K FEET. ONE HOUR RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW LAYER OF NE WINDS NOW RATHER SHALLOW. LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL SHOULD END AROUND 9AM CST. NOW APPEARS LAKE SNOW BANDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY JUST OFF SHORE. NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM BECOMES OVERNIGHT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH DEEPER FRESH SNOW. AS RESULT TEMPS MAY BE A BIT LOWER THAN MOS FORECAST. INCRG HIGH CLOUDS LATE TNGT MAY COME IN TOO LATE TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. WAA TAKING PLACE FRIDAY BRINGS A CHALLENGE. AVN/NGM SHOW MOST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SNOW ACRS N WI. HOWEVER STG LLJ AT 850 MB AND RATHER SHART 850 MB TROF ON ETA WOULD INDICATE A CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER SC/SE WI. WHICH MODELS WILL BE CORRECT STILL PROBLAMATIC...SO WILL INDRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SNOW LIGHT SNOW. EVEN ETA IMPLIES MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND AGAIN DRY LAYERS BELOW 700 TO 750 MB. .UWNMS...SHOWS MAINLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT EVENT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH THIS MORNING. .MKX...NONE HENTZ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 155 PM MST THU JAN 13 2000 THE MAIN WX TO SPEAK OF ATTM IS CONTG -SN IN THE FAR WEST...SEEMS NONE OF THE MODELS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITN...NOT ENUF MSTR. SNOWS ARE MAINLY OROGRAPHIC THO RUC AND WV IMGY SHO XTRM NW WY IS IN VCNTY OF RRQ JET STK. E OF DVD SKIES ARE PC...WITH WIDE TEMP RANGE FROM MID TEENS IN SNOW COVERED BSNS TO LWER 40S IN NATRONA CTY WHERE WINDS HAVE MIXED OUT ATMOS. OF NOTE...AT NOON GEY WITH SNOWCVR WAS 13F WHILE A FEW MILES SOUTH WRL WAS 38F. WK UPR RDGE OVR INTERIOR WEST WILL AMPLIFIFY SOME THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE SHFTG TO EAST OVR WEEKEND. FLOW WILL REMAIN PRGRSV BUT JET AND STM TRK WILL RMN N OF CWA. SITN FVRBL FOR OCNL OROGRPHC SNW NORTHWEST AND DRY E OF DVD. BLDG THKNS AND WRM TRND OVR E THS WKEND...OUT WEST MDLS INDICATE MAJOR SURGE OF MSTR TO INTERACT WITH TOPO AND COULD BE HILITE EVENT. MSTR APRNTLY ASSOCD W WK SHRT WV WHICH MDLS POORLY RESOLVE (XCPT ETA) AND ORIGINATES OFF GRID OVER PAC OCEAN. UNSUCCESSFULLY TRIED TO FIND THIS FEATURE ON WV AND AVN ANAL. BUT FOR NOW...WILL FCST SNW LKLY OUT WEST. XNTD MDLS REBLD H5 RDG OVR WRN US EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRGSV FLO CONTG OVR FA. MRF ADVERTISES ANOTHER SURGE OF MSTR OUT WEST TUES...WILL FOLLOW TIMING BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. .RIW...NONE. DZ wy