NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 235 PM MST MON JAN 10 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS LETTING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IR SATELLITE PICS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO...BUT ANOTHER BATCH HEADED FOR THE STATE IN NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOW MODEL YIELDING ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE A TAD CONSIDERING SOME WARM ADVECTION. STILL ENOUGH SNOW AND ESPECIALLY WIND TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS GOING AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE TIME BEING AS STRONG SURGE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS. LEE TROF APPEARS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY LATE TONIGHT SO DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH WIND THREAT LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP AGAIN IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STABILITY STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. CSI RELATED SNOW BROKE OUT ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFFECTED AREAS HAS REMAINED PRETTY SMALL WITH BANDED NATURE. RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE CSI ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THUS...WILL ONLY HAVE SCATTERED POPS. BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SATELLITE PICS SHOWING STRONG UPR LVL JET NOSING INTO CO...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOWING JET LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH WK RIDGING AND WAA PATTERN TO CLICK ON IN ERNEST ON TUE. THIS CONFIRMED BY UPSTREAM ACARS DATA OVER PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING WAA PATTERN FOR TUE. PRESS FALLS WILL BEGIN LATER TNT EAST OF MTNS AND FLOW PATTERN BACKING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. MORE HI WINDS TO CONTEND WITH AGAIN FOR MTNS/FOOTHILLS/ADJ PLAIN AREAS LATE TNT AND TUE AS STABILITY AND SHEAR CHARACTERISTICS IMPROVE TOWARDS 12Z FOR MORE MTN WAVE CONDITIONS. 700MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AND WITH SO-SO PROFILE FOR MTN WAVE CONDITIONS EXPECT AT LEAST A HI WIND WATCH IS NEEDED FOR LATE TNT AND TUE. FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BUT MOST WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE. WARMING TREND FOR THE PLAINS NEXT TWO DAYS WITH READINGS WARMING UP INTO THE 50S. AS FOR THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS...BUT INTENSITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSENED AS LAPSE RATES LOWER TO 5-6C/KM AND JET DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SOME ACCUM GOING. NO NEED TO ISSUE HILITES FOR TUE AT THIS POINT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...A SCREAMING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THU...THEN MORE RIDGING WITH A RETURN TO A SW FLOW ALF WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PAC. MTNS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT SOME FOR THE EXTENDED PRD. ENTREKIN .DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34. ...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND TUE FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...ZONES 35 AND 36...AND ADJ AREAS OF FOOTHILLS 38>40 FOR TUE. ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS UNTIL MIDNIGHT... ZONES 30..32..35..AND 37. co SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 214 AM MST MON JAN 10 2000 ...MAIN CONCERNS THIS FCST PERIOD ARE THE WINDS AND THE SNOW IN OUR N MTNS... CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MAIN JET CORE RUNNING WNW-ESE ACROSS WY INTO NE CO...WITH A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT THE LAST FEW HOURS. SFC OBS INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN MTNS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO EAST SLOPES. SHORT TERM FCST DISCUSSION...ALL GRIDDED DATA...BOTH EXPERIMENTAL AND OPERATIONAL...INDICATE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (BUT NOT END) IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH THETA PROFILES WILL BECOME BETTER LATE TONIGHT FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SFC PRESSURE FIELDS WEAKEN ALONG WITH WND SPEEDS AT 700 MBS. CONSENSUS IN THE OFFICE IS TO DROP THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR CWA. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MEANT IN MTNS AREAS WHERE PEOPLE ACTUALLY LIVE. MORE STRONG WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW...AND THIS IS DISCUSSED BELOW. AS FOR THE S&BS ADVISORY...WILL PLAN ON KEEPING IT GOING FOR ZONES 58 AND 59. SAT PIX INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MTNS AND THIS LIKELY NOT TO ABATE FOR AWHILE. METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 48 HOURS IS JET ORIENTATION...THAT IS WE WILL TRANSISTION FROM A NW FLOW TO A MORE WEST FLOW. SPEED OF FLOW OVER STATE TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME WITH THE MAX OVER N COLORADO. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER... WINDS COULD PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SFC WINDS...THAT IS: ANOTHER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE SHEAR PROFILE ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...AND THE STABILITY BECOMES FAVORABLE AT MTN TOP LVL (THETA PACKING). FOR THESE REASONS A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...STRONGEST WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD BE AROUND 9 AM TO 3 PM. DURING WEDNESDAY...JET BEGINS TO BUCKLE NWD AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EPAC AND MOVES EAST. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY AT TIMES...BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY AS JET DROPS SOUTH AS SYSTEM OVER PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NUISANCE. OCCNL SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...WITH THE SAN JUANS STARTING TO GET INTO THE ACT. THNXS DEN AND GJT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE HEADS UP ON MONARCH) HODANISH .PUB...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 58/59 TONIGHT. ...HIGH WIND WATCH 65>75 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... co NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 345 AM MST MONDAY JANUARY 10 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: WHAT A NIGHT WE HAD UP IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS OF CO...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS. AUTOMATED WIND SENSORS ATOP LOVELAND AND BERTHOUD PASSES AND AT THE EISENHOWER TUNNEL HV MEASURED GUSTS BTWN 70 AND 85 MPH SINCE MIDNIGHT. A CALL UP TO IKE TUNNEL SHRTLY AFT 10Z REVEALED BLIZZARD CNDTNS GOING ON. TUNNEL PERSONNEL SAID WINDS WERE SO STRONG MUCH OF THE FALLEN SNOW (ABOUT 6-8 INCHES SINCE 6PM SAT) HAD BLOWN OFF AND PILED UP INTO DEEP DRIFTS ALONG SIDE I-70 AT THE EAST PORTAL OF THE TUNNEL. WINDS HV NOT BEEN AS STG IN THE FTHLS...ALTHOUGH GUSTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS HV BEEN IN THE 30 TO 65 MPH RANGE. HV NOT SEEN MUCH WIND ON THE PLNS...XCPT FOR LCL GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH ARND LYONS...GOLDEN AND W SIDE OF FT COLLINS UP NR HORSETOOTH RESERVOIR. SEE A CONTINUATION OF STG W-NWLY WNDS AND PDS OF SNOW/HVY AT TIMES IN THE MTNS AND HIR FNT RNG FTHLS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH 120-130KT JET REMAINING OVRHD. CLOUDS APR TO HV THINNED A BIT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PAST HR OR SO BUT RUC AND 06Z/ETA RH/SPEC HUM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW TO MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN THIS MRNG AS NXT WV OF PAC MSTR DROPS SEWRD OUT OF ID. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MDL FOR THE PD 4AM-4PM TODAY CAME UP WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-10 INCHES ON UPR W-NW SLOPES IN MTN ZNS 33/34 USING A 16:1 WATER TO SNOW RATIO. DOUBT WE'LL SEE UPR SNOW AMT WITH MID-LVL WAA INCREASING STATIC STABILITY NR MTN TOP LVL AND WITH WK DOWNWARD QG FORCING MOVG OVR AREA DURING AFTN HRS. SUSPECT NEW SNOW AMTS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IN THE VLYS. THEREFORE WITH STG NWLY WINDS AND SNOW XPCTD TO CONT TODAY WILL CONT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZNS 33 AND 34. WILL ALSO CONT HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR FNT RNG FTHLS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS (IN THE 60-80 MPH RNG) PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS ABV 8500 FT MSL. WILL KP GUSTY WNDS IN FOR ADJCNT LOWER ELEVTNS WHERE LCL GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE PSBL WITHIN CHINOOK WIND ZONE W OF I-25. OTWS... XPCT TO SEE A WIDE RNG IN TEMPS ACRS THE PLNS DUE TO WARMING EFFECTS OF ADIABATIC COMPRESSION ALG THE FTHLS. OVRALL MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. BAKER LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SNOW AND BLOW FCST FOR MTNS INTO TUES STILL LOOKS GUD AS STG 120-130KT JET OVER AREA. MODELS AGREE VERY WELL THAT FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK TO WLY TUES AND BECOME WSWLY WED. ENUF MSTR AVBL WITH STG ORGRPHC LIFTING PLUS PSBLY SOME MORE CSI BANDS TO EXTEND WNTR STRM WARNG THRU TNGT. BLIZZARD WRNG MIGHT BE LITTLE MORE APPROPRIATE...BUT WHY CONFUSE THE ISSUE SNC WNTR STRM WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT. AS PREV SHIFTS STATED DO EXPECT SNOW TO DCRS TMW AS FLOW BACKS AND WKNS SLGTLY WITH JET LIFTING NWD INTO WY. SHT WVS EMBEDDED IN FLOW MVG TO RPDLY TO TIME PROPERLY AND NOT EVEN SURE CAN DISCERN THEM THAT WELL IN THIS STG WIND PTRN THRFR BROADBRUSH OF SNOW SNOW/BLWG SNOW/WINDY WILL BE WAY TO WORD ZONES. AS FOR SNOW AMTS WILL SEE ANOTHER 2-4 OR 5 INCHES TNGT IN MTNS WITH LESSER AMTS IN ZONES 30...32...37 AS WAA STBLZS AMS AND REDUCES IMPACT OF STG ORGRPHC LIFTING. IN ERN CO PCPN NOT A PRBLM WITH STG CHINOOK IN EFFECT BUT QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO ABOUT HI WIND WRNG IN FTHLS. WITH JET OVERHEAD STILL VULNERABLE TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO FTHL AREAS TNGT HWVR WAA MEANS TEMP PROFILE NOT FAVORABLE TO TRAP MTN WAVE ENERGY AS ALREADY STATED IN PREV AFDS. ON THE FENCE ABOUT EXTENDING IT INTO TONIGHT BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LET IT DIE SINCE TIME SXNS SHOW PEAK WINDS TNGT AROUND 60 KTS. WILL MENTN GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH. LOWER ELVNS WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER GUSTS BECAUSE OF UNFAVORABLE STABILITY PROFILE PLUS SFC GRADIENT SHUD BE EASING ESPCLY IF WEAK SURGE/CD FNT ARVS AS HINTED AT BY MDLS. FOR LONGER TERM FLAT RDG TO MOVE INTO ROCKIES THURS AS TROF DVLPS FURTHER OVER ERN PAC. THIS WILL PUSH JET EVEN FURTHER N OF CO BUT STILL SHUD BE STG ENUF GRAD TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN MTNS TIL THURS. MSTR TO DCRS WITH BACKING FLOW HWVR STILL ENUF TO KEEP CHC IN MTNS THRU EFP PD AS ORGRPHCS STILL IN FORCE ALBEIT WEAKER. DWNSLP FLOW IN ERN CO SO NO POPS THRU EFP BUT A WEAK CD FNT TO MOVE INTO AREA WED NGT/ERLY THURS WITH SFC HI MOVING ACRS NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHICH MAY GENERATE BRF UPSLP PERIOD HERE. THIS TO LOWER TEMPS FEW DEGREES THURS OTRW SHUD BE UNSEASONABLY MILD TUES-FRI. BOODA .DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34. ...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ZONES 35 AND 36. ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ZONES 30..32..AND 37. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 939 PM CST MON JAN 10 2000 GOING ZFP PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED EARLIER AND BASED UPON CURRENT METARS...OBSERVED AND FORECAST ISSALLOBARIC FIELDS...EXPECT THIS CURRENT CONFIG TO SUFFICE. COULD SEE PRETTY WINDY CONDS FROM BOONE TO METRO BUT SINCE I NEED 3 HRS OF ADV CAT OR GUSTS > 40 MPH...WHICH I DON'T THINK I'LL GET...WON'T EXPAND ADV TO INCLUDE ANYMORE OF THE METRO AREA. AGAIN...MAY SEE GUSTS BUMPING THAT 40 MARK BUT WILL BE VERY BRIEF. STF SHOULD HANDLE. ISSALLOBARIC MSAS FIELDS SHOWING BEST RISE/FALL COUPLET NOW FROM EST TO CBF WITH SW CWA SEEING MUCH LESS IN WAY OF WINDS. MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA THERE BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENUF THAT I DON'T WANT TO FLIP FLOP DOWN THERE. SO...THOUGH SEE WINDS DIMINISH IN WRN CWA AROUND 1 OR 2 AM...WORKING EAST THROUGH REMAINDER OF NPW AREA BY 4 AM. THAT AND THE DECOUPLING THAT SHOULD OCCUR SHOULD SUPPORT EXPIRE TIME WITH NEXT PACKAGE ISSUANCE. LATEST RUC AND ETA SHOWING PRECIP STAYING MAINLY N OF CWA AND CURRENT FLURRIES SHOULD SUFFICE NORTH. RAISED TEMPS A TAD BASED UPON UPSTREAM TEMPS AND LAMP TEMPS. .DSM...WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY W HWY 169 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>046-057>059-070>072-081>083-09 2>094- SEARCY ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1050 PM EST MON JAN 10 2000 12Z NGM WAS THE BEST FCSTR OF THE 00Z H85 TEMPS ACRS CNTRL CANADA. THE ETAS (12/18Z) WERE ABT 3 DEGS TOO COLD. THE 00Z ETA COMPOUNDS THIS BY INITIALIZING THE 00Z RUN 6 DEGS TOO COLD AT PICKLE LAKE. USING THE NEW NGM DATA SHOWS DELTA T VALUES ACRS THE NWRN FA TO 10 BY 06Z...THEN INCRSG TO 12 TO 14 BY 12Z. DELTA T VALUES STL ONLY 10 TO 12 IN THE FAVORED AREAS E OF MQT. NGM ALSO SHOWS 25 TO 30 KT WNDS AT H85 BY MORG. WL KEEP SNOW AND BLOWG SNOW ADVSRY FOR THE KEWEENAW PENIN AND ONTONAGON...BUT EMPHASIZE LATE TNT FOR THE WORST CONDITIONS. LIFT FM MID LVL S/WV WL RMN TO THE SOUTH. KMPX AND KDLH RADARS SHOW NRN EDGE OF THE SNOW ASSOC W/ THE WAVE TO BE GRADUALLY EASING S AND IR PICS SHOW ENHANCED CLDS WRMG AGN. DO NOT XPCT SNOWFALL FM THIS TO THREATEN TO ANY PLACE XCP POSSIBLY SRN MENOM CNTY. SFC WNDS STL FM THE W ACRS ALL OF THE YOOP XCP THE KEWEENAW... RUC PICS UP ON THE SFC TROFFINESS QUITE WELL...AND AS TROF PRESSES THRU THE U.P. TNT LOW LVL CNVGNC WL BE EHNANCED ALLOWING FOR THE CONTD THREAT OF SCTD -SHSN. ALTHO DRIER/COLDER AIR SHOULD MV IN RAPIDLY AS WNDS SHIFT NW TNT... THINK CRNT LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGS TOO COOL. MID TEEN DWPTS STILL HANGING BACK IN NW QUADRANT OF MN AND FAR SW ONT. .MQT...GALE WRNG LK SUP. LES AND BLSN ADVY MIZ001>003 TNGT-TUE. DESROSIERS mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1105 AM MST MON JAN 10 2000 ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS UP A FEW DEGREES NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND PLACED WIND GUSTS IN 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE LEE OF FRONT RANGES AND NORTHEAST QUARTER TO REFLECT LATEST RUC2 OUTPUT AND CURRENT OBS. 38 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 830 PM EST MON JAN 10 2000 SCNDRY SFC LOW MOVG INTO KORH AREA WITH FNT INVOF SW QUE BDR AND THRU SRN VT. PRES GRAD HAD BRIEFLY RELAXED ACRS ADRNDCKS...BUT PICKS UP AGAIN ACRS SRN ONTARIO-OH VLY. WL PULL CAT PCPN...IN ITS ASSORTMENT OF TYPES...WITH THIS ISSUANCE...HOWEVER SCT SHWRS HEADING ACRS CHENANGO/UPR SUSQUEHANNA VLYS ATTM. MEANWHILE CLDS ON THE WANE ACRS PA/OH. SOME UPSLOPE ST/FG PSBL ON SW SIDES OF CTSKLS WITH RUC SUGGESTING AN H9 DWPNT TONGUE QUICKLY LIFTING NE TO BRKSHRS-CTSKLS...ALSO SOME SMALLER SFC DWPNT DEPRESSIONS ACRS ERN PA...THUS WL INCLUDE IN SRN DIST...BUT SOME LOWLAND CLRG AS GRAD RETURNS. LTLCG BYD FIRST PD. MCKINLEY/WRS .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 315 PM EST MON JAN 10 2000 NOT A LOT OF TIME TDY FOR DISCUSSION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR WRN PA WHERE INSTABILITY STRONGEST BENEATH UPPER LVL COLD POOL. THIS HAS BEEN STEADILY PROGRESSING NORTH AND E. LTNG STRIKES NOW SHOWING UP IN WRN NY AND OVR NRN NYS. EXPECT FROPA LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY WITH AND JUST BEHIND FNT AN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DVLPS. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN RUC TROP PRESS AND UPPER LVL PV FIELDS WHICH MOVE ACRS CWA THIS EVE. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH JET NOW MOVING TWRD COAST AND SECONDARY DEVELPMNT FORMING OVR SERN PA AS 11 MB/3HR FALLS TAKING OVER AND BECOMING STRONGER THAN FALLS WITH MAIN LOW OVR GRT LAKES. SUBSEQUENTLY SFC LOW DVLOPING AND CAUSING SFC PRESS GRAD TO WEAKEN OVR ERN PA AND SERN NY. NOT REALLY SEEING A LOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PA AND NY EVEN WITH THE CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED. OUR 88D VAD WINDS SHOW 50 KTS AT 4000 FEET AND THIS WON'T BE TAPPED UNTIL WE GET SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHEN FNT COMES THRU. EVEN THEN AM EXPECTING GUSTS TO ONLY REACH 35-45 MPH WHICH IS UNDER HIGH WND ADVY. WILL THEREFORE CONT TO PLAY THE ISOLD SVR GUST WITH CONVECTION SCENARIO AND HIGHLIGHT STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WITH SPS. OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOP AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO RGN. COORD WITH BUF FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL NYS TUE NGT AND WED. 850 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C UNDER STRONG 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW. INITIALLY THE BAND MAY TRANSITION THRU NRN ONEIDA TOO QUICKLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL LES CRITERIA BUT DID NOT WANT TO CREATE A "HOLE" IN WATCH AREA. BETTER LES EVENT WILL BE FOR SYR-UCA AREAS WHERE NWLY FLOW IS MORE PROLONGED AND ATTM AM THINKING MORE LIKE ADVY CRITERIA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF FLOW IS TOO STRONG FOR LES WITH PROGGED 850 WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS. .BGM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED...NYZ018-036-037-009. HOLMES ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 930 PM EST MON JAN 10 2000 I PLAN TO DROP WINDS TO BREEZY IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND TO LIGHT ELSEWHERE. IR LOOPS SHOWING SOME FAST MOVING CIRRUS OVER EASTERN TN. LATEST RUC SHOWS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WEAKENING AS IT COMES ACROSS OUR CWA. AREAL COVERAGE OF CIRRUS HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST HOUR ...WHICH GOES GOOD WITH THE RUC WEAKENING THE SHORT WAVE...SO I WILL LEAVE SKY FORECAST CLEAR. I WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE WHERE LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING... BECAUSE THIS SHOULD ALLOW BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. .GSP...NONE RBN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 700 PM CST MON JAN 10 2000 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS HANDLED QUITE WELL BY THE RUC/ETA. THIS BAND HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND EXPECT IT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL MAKE THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS THERE. SECOND AREA OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS AREA NOT RESOLVED WELL BY ANY OF TODAYS MODELS. 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC DO SHOW AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NEAR THIS VICINITY...AND THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE. CROSS SECTIONS IN BOTH AREAS SUGGEST EFFICIENT USE OF CONDENSATE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE RECEIVE MORE THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. NONE THE LESS...WILL WAIT BEFORE UPDATING ANY OF THE OTHER ZONES AS INCREASING WINDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. .LSE...NONE. KRC wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 300 AM EST MON JAN 11 2000 -RA MOVED E OVER SRN COUNTIES THIS MORNING ATTRIBUTED TO THE LEADING EDGE OF VORT OVER WI AT 7Z. ETA/RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON VORT...BASED FROM LATEST WV IMAGERY. ALSO...LATEST MSAS DATA SHOWS A SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WITH ASSOCIATED TROF EXTENDING BACK THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN...INTO SRN MINN. .TODAY AND TONIGHT...KEEPING WITH ETA/RUC SOLUTION VORT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER LWR MICH AROUND 12Z. TROF TO BE THROUGH GRR FA AROUND SAME TIME PROVIDING COLD ENOUGH TEMPS FOR SNOW AS PCPN TYPE. HOWEVER...WITH A 300MB JET OVER 100KTS BEHIND SYSTEM ANY AFFECTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND LIGHT. BUFKIT BRINGS SNOW IN AT 12Z AROUND BEST TIME OF LIFT ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR MORNING HOURS ENDING AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY EVENING...BEST CHANCE TO NORTH BUT WONT SPLIT ZONES FOR 40/50 DIFFERENCE. WITH RESPECT TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...850 TEMPS ARE JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH RH VALUES SLACK AROUND SAME TIME. SO NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH LAKE GENERATED SNOW. GOOD SFC GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF WINDS OVER 20MPH. SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM CWA BY TONIGHT SO WILL REMOVE ANY SUGGESTION OF SNOW DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM. .WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER ARE MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY DETERMINING POSITION OF SFC LOW. ETA SEEMS TO SOUTH FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN SO WILL THINK A BIT MORE NORTH THAN SUGGESTED...CLOSER TO AVN SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY CONTINUING WITH GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR LATE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASE PROB BY EVENING. MCINERNEY .EXTENDED DISCUSSION... WEAK WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WED/WED NGHT PROVIDING WAA SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BUMP UP WORDING TO LIKELY FOR WED NIGHT PER THE 48HR ETA AND 48-60HR AVN PROGS. NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA SHOULD COMBINE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WILL JUST WORD THURSDAY AS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. BEYOND THAT...NEW CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN STILL HINTING AT WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS DISCUSSED BY YESTERDAY/S DAY SHIFT. SO...WILL NOT CHANGE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. DUKESHERER .GRR...NONE. mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 850 PM CST MON JAN 10 2000 SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS HELPING TO PUSH A PACIFIC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. FRONT IS RUNNING A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. LATEST RUN OF THE RUC HAS DEPICTED THE SOMEWHAT FASTER MOVEMENT. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN JUMPING UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE EVENING HAVE REFLECTED THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ALTHOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. 32 .OUN... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. ok AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1015 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2000 ...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...DISPLAYED VIA BUFKIT...ACROSS OUR CWA WAS QUITE REVEALING THIS MORNING. 00Z NGM AND 00Z ETA 18Z SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE 5 DEGREES C/ 9 DEGREES F/ WARMER THAN THE CORRESPONDING FORECAST FROM THE 12Z RUC2 RUN. A LOOK AT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY COMPARES FAVORABLY WITH THE RUC2 18Z FORECAST. SO HAVE KNOCKED ABOUT 8 DEGREES F OFF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAXIMUMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE CWA FROM THE UPWIND WEATHER DISTURBANCE TONIGHT...HAD TO LOWER TONIGHT'S FORECAST MINIMUMS DUE TO THE EXPECTED 00Z READINGS BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN PREVIOUS ZONE FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RALLY SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. LEFT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ALONE. ONE LAST COMMENT ON FORECASTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...INTERESTING THAT THE LAMP FORECASTS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE UPWIND TEMPERATURES. SPOT LAMP FORECASTS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. .MSP...NONE RJN mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1010 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2000 CURRENT RADAR OUT OF KABR AND KUNR SHOWING ENHANCING ECHOES OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WITH LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING IN JONES COUNTY AND AT KPHP. THIS AREA OF SNOW LINES UP WELL WITH A VORT MAX AND THE 70 PERCENT RH AREA ON THE RUC. WILL ADD POPS FOR SNOW TO THE WESTERN CWA AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE EAST ALREADY IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA...SO WILL ADJUST ZONES FOR THAT TOO. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. .ABR...NONE. PARKIN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 309 AM CST TUE JAN 11 2000 FCST FOCUS IS ON SHRT WV CROSSING WI THIS AM AND UPCOMING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR WED. IN THE SHORT TERM...00Z ETA HAS BEST HNDL ON SHRT WV OVR LSE AT 06Z APPCHG CWA. PROFILER NTWRK VERIFIES ETA H3 WINDS WITH 130KTS OVR N CNTRL NEB. ETA TRACK OF SHRT WV WOULD PUT IT OVR MKG BY 12Z... EXTRAPOLATING TRACK OF SWIRL ON IR SATELLITE IMAGE PUTS IT A BIT SOUTH AND SLOWER...OVR MKE AT 13Z. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING..WHICH FITS TREND IN UVV FIELDS OF WKNG LIFT AS WV SHOOTS THRU. DRY AIR WRAPING INTO CIRCULATION WILL ALSO LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH BETTER AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK. FCST SNDGS SHOW DECENT INSTABILITY IN A DEEP LYR FM 925 MB UP...SO SOME CONVECTIVE SNOW MAY PUMP SNOW AMOUNTS UP OVR MODEL FCST AMOUNTS. 06Z RUC SNOW ACCUM CHARTS PAINT .1 TO .3 INCH ACRS EXTREME NRN CWA...WITH NGM AND ETA ARND .1 INCH. BULK OF LGT SNOW WL BE THRU ALL BUT FAR ERN CWA BY 12Z. WL SEE AMOUNTS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. FCST SNDGS HAV SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVR IN WRN CWA BY MID MORNING AND IN THE EAST SHRTLY AFTR NOON...SO SOME BREAKS FOR THE AFTN HOURS. IN LONG TERM...ALL MODELS DEPICT TRANSITION OF STG UPR FLOW TO ZONAL PATTERN BY END OF 48HRS. NEXT WV OF CONSEQUENCE APPCHS WED AFTN. NGM THE FASTEST...AVN SLOWEST...WITH ETA THE COMPROMISE WITH H5 WAVE AND VORT MAXIMA...AND MORE SRLY OF ALL THE MODELS WITH TRACK OF H8 AND SFC LOS. MID LVL NW FLO BEGINS BACKING TO WEST TNT IN RESPONSE TO APPCHG WV... WAA BRING CLDS ALREADY APPEARING IN WRN PLAINS BACK OVRNGT. MDLS PLACE HVYR SNOW AMOUNTS THRU CNTRL/NRN WI ON WED...WITH ALL MDLS SHIFTING THE GNRL PCPN FIELDS A BIT NORTH FM 12Z MON RUNS. ETA AND NGM SPEC HUMIDITIES AVG 2G/KG OVR CWA...WITH AVN BRINGING IN 3G/KG. ISENTROPIC DWNGLIDE ON 290K AND 295K SFCS WRKS INTO WRN CWA WED EVE.. SO LOOKS LIKE AN AFTN EVENT. NGM FWC POPS APPEAR TOO LO...AND REFLECT PLACEMENT OF SFC LO THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE OPERATIONAL MDLS. WL KEEP 50 PC POPS IN CURRENT FCST FOR ALL OF CWA. TOO ERLY AND TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK TO MENTION AMOUNTS...BUT SPEED AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAKE IT APPEAR TO BE AN ADVISORY EVENT OR LESS FOR CWA. FAN AND FWC TEMPS CLOSE AND FOLLOWED. .UWNMS...NOT AVBL. .MKX...NONE. /...0...0...0 REM wi