AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 945 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ABOUT A GVL-ATL-CSG LINE AT 02Z. BOTH RUC AND MESO-ETA FORECAST THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTH WITH SOME CLEARING WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SPRINKLES SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND MGE REPORTED -RA AT 0207Z. WILL TAKES OUT FLURRIES BUT ADD SPRINKLES TO NW ZONES. WILL BRING A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTHWARD TO THE ATL-AHN AREAS. SOME FLURRIES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE GA. WILL INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE...THOUGH THEY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. .ATL...NONE 26 ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1133 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS GOOD OVERALL...WILL UPDATE TO KEEP WORDING CURRENT. LTST RUC SHOWS IN CLOUD WINDS BEGIN TO BACK WITHIN 90 MINUTES...INVERSION WL CONT TO DROP AS MLVL VORT PAST LKMI TO ABOUT 4K BY 12Z. DELTA-TS NR 17C. WL BEGIN TO SEE DECREASE IN SNOW BAND INTENSITY WITH LITTLE ACCUM OUTSIDE OF BERRIEN/CASS AND PERHAPS AS MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL INCH THERE. .IWX...NONE MURPHY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1046 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 CURRENT FCST ON TRACK AND WL NOT UPDATE THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACRS CWA AND VISIBILITIES BEGINNING TO DROP HERE AND TO OUR WEST. LATEST RUC AND ETA SUPPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS AWAY FM LAKE WITH DEEP MOISTURE LACKING AND QPF AMOUNTS VERY SMALL. MAIN UPPER TROF AND VORT AXIS TO SWING INTO WRN FA THIS AFTN AND ACRS REMAINDER OF FA THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SAT PICS SHOW SOME HIGHER TOPS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN ERN IA/WRN IL. SFC OBS REFLECT THIS WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES SAME AREAS. MAY HAVE TO ADD SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING ZONES BUT WL WAIT FOR FULL AFTN EVALUATION. SATELLITE VIS PICS ALSO SHOW SOME HIGHER TOPS COMING ACRS LM. NEW ETA STARTS INVERSION OFF MUCH HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IT CLIMBS TO 6KFT BY 00Z. H8 AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE FETCH DOWN LAKE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. ETA SEEMED TO INITIALIZE H8 TEMPS WELL AND SMALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR LES IS DELTA T VALUES REMAINING IN MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS. STILL LIKE CURRENT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE... COULD EVEN SEE A LITTLE MORE BY LATE AFTN THAN CURRENT INCH. WL NOT UPDATE UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT BANDS SET UP. TEMPS ALSO LOOKING GD WITH UPSTREAM TEMPS IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. .IWX...NONE. LASHLEY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 835 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2000 FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SNOW DEVELOPING LATE. LITTLE NEW INFORMATION TO GO ON. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/MOVE EAST FROM MT/DAKS AREA. SNOW FROM COMPOSITED WSR-88D ALGORITHM PAGES SHOWS SNOW MAKING HEADWAY OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. SURFACE OBS CONFIRMS THIS TREND. 00Z RUC SHOWS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/290K SFC/ TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN BY 12Z. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROF TO TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT SPREADING LIGHT SNOW INTO WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE FLURRIES INTO EAST CENTRAL TOWARD DAWN. TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF CLOSE TO FORECASTED LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING EAST INTO WESTERN MN AT THIS TIME. WITH PRESSURE FALLS AND CLOUDS...RISING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TREND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW FORECAST LEFT AS IF FOR NOW. .MSP...NONE DWE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 958 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 WE JUST ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PART OF THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION...AS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST HOUR. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF TREES DOWNED AS THIS AREA PASSED WESTERN COUNTIES. THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11:30 AM. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH COMMON. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 12Z RUC PROFILES SHOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WELL...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 30S IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE RAIN EVIDENT ON THE 88D. I DECIDED TO DROP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SINCE MUCH OF THE PRECIP AFTER IT GETS COLD ENOUGH WILL BE SCATTERED. IN ADDITION...THE GROUND IS STILL QUITE WARM. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED...EXCEPT FOR SOME WORDING CHANGES. .BUF...HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH 11:30 AM FOR NYZ003-004-013-014 WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY AND EVENING NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021 PO/TP ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 908 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS SHOW COLD ADVECTION WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS CWA. SUB-FREEZING TEMPS THOUGH STILL ONLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RUC SHOWED 850-700 THICKNESS ALREADY BELOW CRITICAL VALUE AT 00Z. REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW AT BEECH MTN AND NRN JACKSON COUNTY HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...WITH SCT LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW ANY TIME NOW. SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FCST OF SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WILL UP THE POP TO LIKELY FOR MADISON COUNTY...NORTH. PATTERN PRETTY PROGRESSIVE...S/W TO MOVE OVER MTNS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY UPR RIDGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z. WITH 25 TO 30 KT NW FLOW AT 850 MB...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES BY DAWN. TEMPS LOOK OKAY...BUT WILL TWEAK THE FAR WRN MTN ZONE TO BRING IN LINE WITH THE REST OF MTNS. .GSP...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES ALL MTN ZONES IN NC/SC/GA. MOYER sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1007 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 DISC: 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CDFNT FM ERN TN SW THRU NW GA INTO AL. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS COLDEST CLD TOPS MAINLY TO THE NW AND N OF THE STATE. MORNING VSBY LOOP SHOWING LOTS OF CLDS ACRS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE STATE WITH SOME SUN ALNG THE CSTL AREAS. VAD SHOWING 45 KT WIND ARND 2000 FT AND 60 KT WND ARND 4000 FT. WIND HAS REALLY BEGUN TO PICK UP HERE AT CAE...ESP WITH A LITTLE SUN THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING. WL CONT WITH WND ADV FOR AREA LAKES WITH 15 TO 25. WL LIKELY SEE A FEW GUSTS ARND 30 MPH MAYBE EVEN 35 MPH. TIMING OF MORNING RUC AND 00Z ETA LOOK ON TRACK FOR PROGRESS OF CDFNT THIS AFT. VAD NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT A LITTLE SPEED SHEAR THIS MORNING. LIGHTNING DATA CHART NOT SHOWING ANY LIGHTNING...EVEN WHERE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE THE HEAVIEST ON REGIONAL COMPOSITE...OVR SRN GA. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...BUT DO SHOW THE STRONG LOW LVL WINDS. WITH TDS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WL STILL LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF TSRA...BUT THINK BEST CHC WL BE AREAS TO OUR S AND E...WHERE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE ALNG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING FM MORNING SUN. WL LEAVE MAX TEMPS AS IS FOR THE AFT. LOOKS LIKE SHRA WL TAPER OFF FM W TO E BY AFT. .CAE...WIND ADVY TODAY AREA LAKES. LCV sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 927 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN TN POISED TO COME ACROSS THE MTNS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROF WAS LOCATED FURTHER WEST ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN TO NRN MS. H8 ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A DUAL FRONT TYPE STRUCTURE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWING UP ACROSS MOST OF TN. 6Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOWING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF THE UPPER TROF OVER WEST TN/NRN MS WHICH SHOULD SWING UP THIS WAY DURING THIS AFTN. I EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AROUND NOON AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THIS CWA. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OF AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A LITTLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS IN. A BETTER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL COME IN TONIGHT AS THE SECONDARY FRONT/TROF MOVES ACROSS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKING EXPECTED ON THIS UPDATE FORECAST. .GSP...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES...ALL MTN ZONES. RBN sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 900 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2000 SFC LOW CONTS TO DROP SE TOWARD NWRN ND AS FORECAST...WITH SFC TROF NOW COMING INTO WRN SD AND WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH. MID AND HIGH CLOUD SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD CWA AND IT ALSO APPEARS THAT TEMPS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AND ARE NOW ON THE UPSWING. LATEST RUC SHOWS 5H ENERGY DIVING INTO STATE BY 06Z...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF. WILL TWEAK CLOUD COVER AND NEATEN UP TEMPERATURES...OTW NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. .ABR...NONE. HINTZ sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 959 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 SURFACE LOW EXITING GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. MAIN FRONTAL ZONE EXITING CWA THIS MORNING. WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AS WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND PRESSURE GRADIENT MOMENTARIALLY SLACKENS. RAOBS AND RUC/MESOETA DEPICT SPEEDS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS REFLECTING SURFACE LOWS CURRENT TREND. POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AND CAA MOVES QUICKLY IN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR UPDATE...WILL DROP POPS AND WND ADVSRY. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SUN AND COOL TEMPS A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST. SON tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1009 AM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 WL DROP WARNINGS WITH MORNING UPDATE. WFNT FM ST LAW CNTY ACRS ADRNDCKS THEN SNAKING SWD...W OF S VT. TMPS HAV WRMD INTO 50S AS FAR N AS PTD...BUT STILL HANGING NR 32 AT MSS. ALSO NR 32 IN CT VLY. WFNT WL SLOWLY LIFT N AND E TAFTN RCHG W VT BUT MAY HAV TROUBLE GETTING E OF GREEN MTNS WHERE TMPS WL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 40. ELSW FM CHMPLN VLY WWD TMPS WL LKLY RISE INTO 50S...XCP COOLER MSS. GOOD SLUG OF RA MOVG NE ACRS E NY/VT WITH MORE RA TO THE W ASSCD WITH CDFNT SO WL CONT PDS OF RA TAFTN. WITH TMPS NR FRZG AT MSS/CT VLY WL ALSO KEEP POCKETS OF FZRA INTO ERLY AFTN FOR THESE AREAS. CDFNT ON A YTR-ROC LN AT 15Z AND RUC/MSO INDCTG FROPA 18-21Z ACRS NNY SO HAV INDCTD FALLING TMPS W ZNS FOR LTR IN THE DAY. ALSO...SOME GUSTY WINDS XPCTD W ZNS AFT FROPA AND WSHFT TO WSW. NO CHGS BYND 1ST PD. .BTV...NONE. KJC vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 910 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 KFCX 88D AT 0150Z SHOWED THAT THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF RNK CWA. SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. IFLOWS DATA INDICATED THAT A QUARTER TO AROUND AN INCH HAD FALLEN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE REGIONAL RADAR PLOT SHOWED SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. RNK 00Z SHOWED WINDS GREATER THAN A 100KTS AT 16,000 FEET AND 850 TEMPS HAD ALREADY DROP TO MINUS 5. SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST AND SHOULD BE OFF IN THE ATLANTIC BY 06Z. 21Z RUC SUPPORTS CURRENT PACKAGE WITH LIGHT PCP PRINTOUT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE 18Z MESO-ETA WAS SIMILIAR HOLDING ON TO THE 1000-850 MB MOISTURE IN THE WEST AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCP ALONG THE WEST SLOPES EVEN AS LATE AS 15Z. A STRONG VORT CENTER WILL PIVOT EAST THROUGH 12Z IN ADDITION TO HEALTHY 85H CAA. A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CREATE SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PLUNGED INTO THE 30S IN THE FAR WEST....SO PCP TYPE IS SNOW. GENERAL TREND OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGE BUILDING EAST DURING THE PERIOD. WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES OVERNIGHT. PACKAGE WILL BE OUT AROUND 935 PM. .RNK VA...NONE. WV...NONE. NC...NONE. KK va EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 925 AM PST TUE JAN 4 2000 BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUDS TOPS ON IR TO ERN WA...WITH PRECIP ENDING MOST OF WA. SNOW CONTINUES ID PANHANDLE...WITH WARNINGS KEPT THRU TODAY. HAVE LET WARNING FOR SPOKANE AND PALOUSE AREAS END THIS MORNING PER KOTX 88D AND REGIONAL CONTACTS. ALSO NE WA MOUNTAINS DOWGRADED TO SNOW ADVISORY THRU MIDDAY...WITH SHERIFFS REPORTING ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING PEND OREILLE CO. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR 0C OFF SFC...INDICATIVE OF MELTING LAYER IN PRESENCE OF GOOD WAA. HOWEVER...THIS DIABATIC COOLING MAY OFFSET WAA SOMEWHAT...WITH ID PALOUSE AND KCOE REGION SEEING ACCUMS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE THRU MIDDAY. TROF PASSAGE WILL USHER IN STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF GOOD WLY FLOW TO CONTINUE SNOW ID PANHANDLE ZONES. SHOWERY PRECIP TO PERSIST ERN WA AND ID ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THE OTHER STORY. SFC LOW PRESS MOVG E THRU BC...WITH RUC SEEMING TO DO SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH POSITION AND PRESS GRAD THIS MORNING. WITH VEERING SFC WINDS...PROFILE HAS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE...EXPECT MIXING POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MOST AREAS. WINDY WORDING LEFT IN ZONES. CALLS TO LOCAL SKI RESORTS INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL 50 MPH GUSTS. CURRENT ZONES REFLECT THIS. ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 039/025/033 921 CQV 035/024/031 921 S86 035/025/031 953 COE 039/024/033 921 WWP 032/028/031 +63 LWS 044/032/038 721 MOS 040/027/033 EAT 037/026/035 610 .GEG...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ID ZONES 1 AND 4. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TODAY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR ID ZONE 27. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FOR WA ZONE 31 ABOVE 4000 FEET. ...SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES TO MIDDAY FOR WA ZONE 37. wa EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON 230 AM PST TUE JAN 4 2000 CORRECTED WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TO ADD WA ZONE 37 IMPRESSIVE LOOKING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE OVER WEST CENTRAL BC THIS MORNING...WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ALONG 130W. THE LOW CENTER HAS DEEPENED MORE THAN THE 00Z MODELS WOULD INDICATE PER SURFACE OBS. LATEST RUC HAS THIS NOTION IN MIND. THE MAIN CONSEQUENCE OF THE DEEPER SURFACE LOW IS A STRONGER WIND FIELD...WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY RESULTS IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WAA HAS BEEN STEADILY WARMED TEMPS ACROSS MOST OF EAST WASHINGTON THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND INTO THE SPOKANE AREA. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND IDAHO PANHANDLE ARE A LITTLE MORE PROTECTED FROM THIS WAA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. TIMING OF THE FRONT PER SATELLITE LOOKS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MODELS...SUGGESTING FROPA OVER THE CASCADES AROUND 13Z AND INTO THE SPOKANE AREA AROUND 18Z. LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE SNOW LEVELS. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE SOUTH OF A COEUR D'ALENE TO SPOKANE TO EPHRATA LINE. WILL ADJUST WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SOUTH OF THIS LINE TO ADD SNOW LEVELS FROM AROUND 2500 FEET NEAR SPOKANE TO 3500 FEET SOUTH OF LEWISTON. WILL LEAVE THE MOUNTAIN ZONES (WA37-38 ID 1 AND 4) HEADLINES INTACT. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AGAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RESERVED FOR PORTIONS OF ID ZONE 4...WHERE ANYWHERE FROM 3-6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN ABOVE 700 MBS AFTER FROPA. THIS DRY AIR COUPLED WITH SWIFT WEST FLOW OVER THE CASCADES WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHADOW TO MOST OF EAST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME WEST PORTIONS OF IDAHO ESSENTIALLY ENDING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT. UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER IDAHO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THINGS REALLY WONT DECREASE UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES INTO MONTANA LATER TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION...THE MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. WILL FOLLOW WITH THE RUC SOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS LOW DEEPER AS IT CROSSES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NGM PROBABLY THE CLOSEST SOLUTION WITH DEPTH OF SURFACE LOW AND THUS CAN USE MOS WINDS AS DECENT GUIDANCE...WILL JUST NUDGE WINDS UP A BIT. THIS WOULD BE A BETTER WIND EVENT AT THE SURFACE IF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WERE STRONGER AND SURFACE LOW WERE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. NONETHELESS POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. TOP SPEEDS OF 30-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM SPOKANE SOUTH TO LEWISTON...WHILE MOUNTAIN WINDS COULD APPROACH 45 KNOTS. THE WEATHER WILL QUIET DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH COOL NW FLOW MOVING TAKING ITS PLACE. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO AREA. .EXTENDED...SLIGHT CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED FOR DAY THREE TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIP NEAR THE CASCADES LATE IN THE DAY OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. ...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS... GEG 038/025/033 921 CQV 035/024/031 921 S86 034/025/031 953 COE 037/024/033 921 WWP 032/028/031 +63 LWS 044/032/038 721 MOS 040/027/033 EAT 039/026/035 610 .GEG...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING ABOVE 2500 FEET FOR WA ZONES 33 36 AND ID ZONES 2-3. ...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE TODAY FOR ID ZONES 1 AND 4. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TODAY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR ID ZONE 27. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TODAY FOR WA ZONE 31 ABOVE 4000 FEET. ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR WA ZONE 37. ...SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR WA ZONES 38 AND 42. ... wa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 235 PM MST TUE JAN 4 2000 50-60KT LYR CONTS TO DPN OVR MBW PROFILER...NOW UP TO ABT 6H. SIMILAR SPDS AT 5H. NRMLY SCREAMG WND CORRIDOR...ARL/VDW/BRX...CONTS TO SCREAM. STILL SUSTAING ABT 50KTS AT ARL WITH G60. BRX/VDW SLGTLY LESS. APPRS TO HV BLOWN ITSELF OUT HERE. 20Z RUC RUNNG ABT 10KTS WKR AT 7H THAN PROFILER. RUC KPS 40-50KTS OVR HI WND THRU EVENG HRS...SO WL CONT WRNG. APCHG PAC COOL FNT WL SHFT GRADIENT AND WKN HI PRES OVR WRN CO ENUF BY THAT TIME TO MAKE HI WNDS THRU CORRIDOR LESS FVRBL. 30KM MM5 SIMILAR TO AVN IN SPRDG QPF THRU E-CNTRL WY/NRN PANHANDL THIS EVENG. ETA DOESN/T HV QPF TIL LT NGT HRS. MDLS GENLY CONSISTENT WITH MN QPF FALLG IN S-CNTRL WY THRU 30HRS. WL PUT SLGT ACCUMULATN IN FOR MTNS. FOLLOWG PSG OF FINAL S/W ARND 42HRS...DRY BUT CONTD WINDY WX. .EXTENDED FORECAST... PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH FAST NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES OF RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. .CYS... WY...HI WND WRNG EVENG IN AND NEAR SE MTNS ZNS 63..64..66..67. NE...NONE. COX wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AGAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 1135 AM MST TUE JAN 4 2000 MBW PROFILER CONTG TO RUN 50-55KTS AT LWST LVLS. THESE SPDS REFLECTD AT TIMES IN GSTS AT RWL/ARL. DON/T ANTICIPATE SUCH EXTRM SPDS THAT OCCURRED ARND MIDNGT AT ARL. BLV THIS WAS CAUSED BY NRLY SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF DECOUPLG...PSG OF RGT FNT QUAD JET AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH APCHG S/W RDG. 14Z RUC ONLY FCSTG 45-50KTS OVR WND CORRIDOR THRU DAY AT 7H...WHICH APPRS ONLY 5-10KTS ON LGT SIDE. NEW NGM NOT ANY STGR. SHARP LEE TROFG DVLPG E LAR RNG DURG DAY...WHICH BRINGS THREAT HI WNDS E OF MTNS INTO FOOTHILLS. SFC HI OVR WRN CO PROGD TO WKN DURG DAY ALSO...WHICH MAY SAVE FOOTHILLS FM HI WNDS. UPDATE...WL ADD WYZN 67 AND 69 TO HWW. .CYS... WY...HI WND WRNG TDA IN AND NEAR SE MTNS, ZNS 63..64..66..67..69. NE...NONE. COX wy AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 341 AM CST WED JAN 5 2000 WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EWD THIS AM TO ERN EDGE OF FCST AREA. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THRU PANHANDLE. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AND WARM FRONTS HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE CLDINESS AND RICH MOISTURE ALOFT. MODEL SNDGS (EXCEPT RUC) INDICATE WARM DRY LAYER AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL PLANT POPS IN ANW- ONL AREAS WITH SPRINKLES NR BBW. SNDGS INDICATE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN IS POSSIBLE. SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER AND BY AFTERNOON TROF HAS SWEPT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE QUICK FROPA IS NEARLY CERTAIN BY 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. OVERALL FOLLOWING MESOETA FAIRLY CLOSELY. MODEL IS TAPERING BACK ON THE PCPN CONFINING IT TO NRN PTN OF FCST AREA. THEREAFTER...NW SFC FLOW CONTINUES BUT ALL MODELS ADVERTISE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOLDING ACROSS MOST OF FCST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FRONT DRAPED NW-SE ACROSS FCST AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE ISNT PARTICULARLY DEEP. LEAVE EXTENDED ALONE. NEW MRF CONTINUES WARMING TREND. .LBF...NONE. CDC ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 326 AM CST WED JAN 5 2000 LATEST IR LOOP INDICATES THAT STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS OVR EXTREME NE SXN OF THE FORECAST AREA WL MOV E SHORTLY. 06Z RUC CONFIRMS THIS. SURFACE RIDGE ACRS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING AND WL MOV E DURING THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WL WARM TO AROUND 40 UNDER SUNNY SKIES..FALLING A LITTLE SHORT OF FWC NUMBERS. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON ACRS N MS TONIGHT AS WEAK FNT APPROACHES FROM WEST. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COLDEST TEMPS ACRS N MS THRU MKL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 20S. EXPECT THAT A LITTLE MORE WIND FROM MEM-JBR WL KEEP TEMPS UP A LITTLE. ON THU TEMPS WL CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ON SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A WK FNT THAT WL MOV THRU THE MID SOUTH THU AFTN AND EVENING. THE FRONT WL BRING A WIND SHIFT A PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS. COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED THU NIGHT AND THIS WL STALL THE WARMING TREND ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS WL ONCE AGAIN STRIVE FOR 50 AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACRS THE REGION. EXTENDED..DRY WX WL CONT SAT WITH WARMER TEMPS. MORE WARMING EXPECTED ON SUN. THE MRF IS INDICATING SOME OVERRUNNING AND THE CHC OF RAIN SUN BUT WL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING TO THE EXTENDED ATTM. .MEM...NONE. SJM tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 940 PM EST TUE JAN 4 2000 IR IMAGERY SHOWS WRAP-AROUND CLOUD DECK OVER AL ERODING MORE SLOWLY NOW. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS FRONT EDGE OF DECK OVER THE CENTRAL FL BIG BEND AROUND 07Z...ASSUMING NO FURTHER EROSION. BUT...WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC PROGS INDICATE STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WITHIN DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE EROSION OF CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALREADY EVIDENT WITH GUSTY METARS AT KMAI AND KPFN. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR ALL EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR NW ZONES. ALTHOUGH I AM USUALLY SHY ABOUT RAISING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ...I THINK IT IS JUSTIFIED THIS TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY WELL-MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DOWNGLIDE AND COLD ADVECTION. LOCAL BUOY DATA...VAD WIND PROFILES...AND MODEL PROGS ALL INDICATE THE NEED TO KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING OVERNIGHT. IN FACT... WILL PROBABLY RAISE WINDS AND SEAS EVEN HIGHER IN UPDATES. FEEDBACK IS ALWAYS WELCOME. .TLH... FL...SCA ALL SEGMENTS COASTAL WATERS. AL...NONE. GA...NONE. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 430 AM MST WED JAN 5 2000 RETRANSMISSION SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE 4 CORNERS HAS HAD MOST OF ITS MOISTURE RUNG OUT BEFORE REACHING NM AND WILL ONLY MENTION VERY LOW POPS NRN MTNS TODAY. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DROP SEWD THROUGH AZ LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SETTLING INTO SW/SCNTRL NM THU. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS DEPICTION BY THE BIG 3. SO IT/S YET ANOTHER WRINKLE ADDED BY THE LATEST MDLS RUN. NO SUPRISE THIS WINTER. WHILE UPPER MOISTURE PROGGED TO SHOW LITTLE INCREASE ACROSS NM WITH THIS SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THU...MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE SOME. AIR BONE DRY NOW AND SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT FROM N/NE INTO NE/ECNTRL NM TONIGHT BEHIND SFC WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT THAT MOVES SE THEN S ACROSS NM NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS. DYNAMICS AND WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS DON/T OVERLAP ALL THAT WELL WITH WHAT DYNAMICS THERE ARE A LITTLE S OF GREATER RH. UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE NOT AT ALL IMPRESSIVE...BUT Q VECTOR ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK PCPN SUPPORT FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOMEWHAT TO E AND SE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TO MID THU. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LOW LVL WIND FOR E ALSO. SO ADDED MORE CLOUDS TO PREVIOUS FCST THOSE AREAS AND LOW POPS...NOTHING ABOVE 10/S...FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO THU. FWC POPS QUITE LOW ALSO. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED IF NOTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDINESS HAPPENS ...BUT CAPRICIOUS NATURE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS LATE FALL/WINTER SO FAR MAKE ME RELUCTANT TO MAKE ABSOLUTELY NO MENTION OF PCPN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. 43 ABQ AB 046/019 041/017 044 430-- SAF BB 041/012 036/011 039 43--- TCC AB 056/024 046/023 049 4301- .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 950 AM EST WED JAN 5 2000 DISC: CURRENT OBS SHOWING MOST STNS RPTNG NEARLY CLR SKIES. SAT PIX SHOW GD AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPING AND THIS WL HELP IN KPNG CLR SKIES. BUFKIT DATA SHOWS THAT WITH THE DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE TO ARND 5K WNDS CAN STY GUSTY THROUGH AFTN HRS. CAA STL SPILLING TO RGN AND WNDS SHD STAY UP THRU LATE AFTN. GRAD SHD BEGIN TO RELAX SOME DURING THE AFTN HRS AND THIS TO WL HELP WITH THE WNDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. WL REWORD THE FCST FROM BECMG M/SUNNY TO SUNNY. TEMPS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND AND MAY LWR TEMPS JUST A TAD. LATEST RUC SHOWS THE UPR TROF IS JUST ABOUT OVR THE RGN NOW AND AS ITS PASSES TO OUR E THE WNDS WL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP OFF TWRD THE AFTN HRS. MARINE...WNDS ARE STL RUNNING JUST BLO GALE FORCE. WITH GRAD AT ITS PEAK...THE WNDS SHD STRT TO COME DOWN DURING AFTN HRS. WL LV THEM AT A STRG SMALL CRAFT. .OKX...SCA ADVISORY FOR CSTL WTRS...LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR...ANZ350-353-355-330-335-338. GSK ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 948 AM EST WED JAN 5 2000 EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER..AND ARE BREAKING UP ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES THE RULE. UPDATED ZONES A LITTLE BIT AGO TO REMOVE THE SNOW WORDING...SINCE SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT NO SNOW HAD FALLEN IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST HAD BEGUN. SKIES SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND WE WILL SEE THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY ERODE AS FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN AND WITH DRIER AND COLDER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORTS MAXES IN THE MIDDLE 40S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN 36 AND 40 DEGREES AS I WRITE THIS...AND WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST MAXES. MESO-ETA...RUC AND ETA BUFKIT SUPPORT THE 00Z MODEL TRENDS OF A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DURING THE DAY. WILL EVALUATE BEFORE FINAL ISSUANCE...BUT ANY CHANGES TO OUR WIND FORECASTS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. .GSP...NONE. BURRUS sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1208 PM EST WED JAN 5 2000 UPDATE CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL FOR DELTA...SCHOOLCRAFT...AND SOUTHERN LUCE COUNTIES AS COLD SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THEN SYNOPTIC SNOW THIS AFTN AND EVENING OVER WRN UPR. ATTM...LOW PRESSURE CNTRD OVR ERN ND WITH CFNT TRAILING SOUTH INTO WRN NEBRASKA. REMNANTS OF MIDWEST-ERN GT LAKES RIDGE BEING REPLACED WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EVIDENCED BY SOUTH WIND GUSTS OVR 20 MPH IN IWD. ERN EDGE OF SYSTEM SNOW AREA BETWEEN DLH AND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IR LOOP SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING WRN 2/3 OF CWA. KMQT 88D VWP INDICATES CLOUD COVER 100-220. 12Z AVN...RUC AND ETA CARRY 18Z H8 TEMPS -12 TO -14C OVR THE LAKE MICH SHORELINE OF DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT WITH A 15KT FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. NGM IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. PER GLERL SATELLITE DERIVED LAKE SFC TEMP ANALYSIS...MOST OF LAKE MICH ABOUT 5C BUT 3-4C NEAR UPR MICH SHORELINE. RESULTANT DELTA-T'S 16-18C. RUC MAINTAINS SFC-950MB INVERSION THRU 18Z...WASHING IT OUT BY 21Z WITH DRY AIR 900-700MB. ETA'S 18Z CAP IS 900-850MB BREAKING BY 00Z WITH T-TD DEPRESSIONS LT 5C THRU 500MB. WINDS VEER SSW TO WSW 25-20 KTS SFC-800MB. BY 00Z...H8 TEMPS AVG -10C FOR DELTA-T 14C WHICH HOLDS THROUGH 06Z THURS AM THEN WARMING TO -8 TO -9 12Z THURS... AFTER WHICH WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LAKE EFFECT CONCERN AREA REMAINS UNDER 700-500MB QVEC DIVGC AND NIL 700MB UVV THRU 18Z...AFTER WHICH QVEC CONVGR AND H7 UVV COME INTO PLAY IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. MESOETA PICKS UP ON THIS BY BRINGING PRECIP OVR NRN LK MICH BY 00Z... A FEW HRS IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM PRECIP SHIELD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LES DECISION TREE SUPPORTS PURE LES 1-3"/6HR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT DURG AFTN PRIOR TO SYSNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THIS EVENING WE MOVE TO THE COMBINATION BRANCH AS DYNAMIC SUPPORT MOVES IN...H7 OMEGA 2 MICROBARS/SEC INCREASING TO 3. MEANWHILE...DELTA-T'S DECREASING TO 14C AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...SO 1-3"/6HR EARLY INCREASING JUST SLIGHTLY LATE. CWA IN 285K INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH 1.5-2G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ADVECTING INTO WRN UPR MI THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IMR TECHNIQUE POINTS TO 2-4"/12HR SNOWFALL RATE. ZONES UPDATED ACCORDINGLY .MQT...NONE. JP mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1102 AM EST WED JAN 05 2000 CURRENTLY THE SURFACE CHART SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES... FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SURFACE CHART ALSO SHOWS A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS. VISIBLE STLT AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE REMAINING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER EAST UPPER AND NORTHWEST LOWER. MESO ETA AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOWS 850 TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM -15C THIS MORNING TO -12C BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP HINDER THE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER OVER LAKE INSTABILITY... SOUTHWEST FLOW AND APX 88D AND VIS STLT BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE EVIDENCE OF LAKE EFFECT BANDING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER LAKE THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON... WILL GO WITH CURRENT VIS STLT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MENTION PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. APX...NONE. SWR mi