RUC Convective Probability Forecast (RCPF)


  • Running since 2004 through current (Oct 2008).
  • Runs hourly based on hardened "Backup" 13km RUC run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD.
  • Provides hourly updated 3,4,5,6,7,8,9h probabilistic forecasts of the likelihood of 40-dbZ radar echoes within a 40-km-side grid volume.
  • Gridded RCPF data provides guidance to NOAA Aviation Weather Center for the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) .
  • RCPF papers by Weygandt, Benjamin, etc. from 2008 and 2004
  • RUC Probabilistic Echo-Top Forecast (PETF) , also based on RUC, provides estimated echo-top if convection occurs, and covers a broader area where convection has a non-zero chance.
VALID
INIT
16/22z
16/23z
17/00z
17/01z
17/02z
17/03z
17/04z
17/05z
17/06z
VALID
INIT
LOOP Not Available for 16/20z
LOOP Not Available for 16/20z
LOOP Not Available for 16/19z
LOOP Not Available for 16/19z
LOOP Not Available for 16/18z
LOOP Not Available for 16/18z
LOOP Not Available for 16/17z
LOOP Not Available for 16/17z
LOOP Not Available for 16/16z
LOOP Not Available for 16/16z
VALID
INIT
16/22z
16/23z
17/00z
17/01z
17/02z
17/03z
17/04z
17/05z
17/06z
VALID
INIT