RUC Convective Probability Forecast (RCPF)


  • Running since 2004 through current (Oct 2008).
  • Runs hourly based on hardened "Backup" 13km RUC run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD.
  • Provides hourly updated 3,4,5,6,7,8,9h probabilistic forecasts of the likelihood of 40-dbZ radar echoes within a 40-km-side grid volume.
  • Gridded RCPF data provides guidance to NOAA Aviation Weather Center for the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) .
  • RCPF papers by Weygandt, Benjamin, etc. from 2008 and 2004
  • RUC Probabilistic Echo-Top Forecast (PETF) , also based on RUC, provides estimated echo-top if convection occurs, and covers a broader area where convection has a non-zero chance.
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INIT
21/22z
21/23z
22/00z
22/01z
22/02z
22/03z
22/04z
VALID
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VALID
INIT
21/22z
21/23z
22/00z
22/01z
22/02z
22/03z
22/04z
VALID
INIT