RUC Convective Probability Forecast (RCPF)


  • Running since 2004 through current (Oct 2008).
  • Runs hourly based on hardened "Backup" 13km RUC run at NOAA/ESRL/GSD.
  • Provides hourly updated 3,4,5,6,7,8,9h probabilistic forecasts of the likelihood of 40-dbZ radar echoes within a 40-km-side grid volume.
  • Gridded RCPF data provides guidance to NOAA Aviation Weather Center for the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) .
  • RCPF papers by Weygandt, Benjamin, etc. from 2008 and 2004
  • RUC Probabilistic Echo-Top Forecast (PETF) , also based on RUC, provides estimated echo-top if convection occurs, and covers a broader area where convection has a non-zero chance.
VALID
INIT
21/09z
21/10z
21/11z
21/12z
21/13z
21/14z
21/15z
21/16z
21/17z
VALID
INIT
LOOP Not Available for 21/07z
LOOP Not Available for 21/07z
LOOP Not Available for 21/06z
LOOP Not Available for 21/06z
LOOP Not Available for 21/05z
LOOP Not Available for 21/05z
LOOP Not Available for 21/04z
LOOP Not Available for 21/04z
LOOP Not Available for 21/03z
LOOP Not Available for 21/03z
VALID
INIT
21/09z
21/10z
21/11z
21/12z
21/13z
21/14z
21/15z
21/16z
21/17z
VALID
INIT